26 replies to this topic

[4caster]

On Dec.7, 2023 Resumebuilder.com did a survey of 906 corporate executives. Thirty eight %

of the respondents said they plan layoffs in 2024 and 22% said they plan to layoff at least 30%

of their employees. Fifty % of the respondents said they will have hiring freezes in 2024. The

respondents with mid-size firms(101 to 1,000) employees were the most pessimistic with 42%

of them saying they plan significant layoffs in 2024. Fifty % of the respondents said they plan

layoffs in anticipation of a recession in 2024 while, interestingly, 40% of them said they plan

layoffs due to AI replacing workers. Recently, Intel, Fedex, Nike and Foot Locker reported that

demand for their products is declining. The bullish scenario as I understand it is that the Fed

will lower rates because the rate of inflation is declining. Although I fully expect the FED to

lower rates I submit it will be more so that demand is falling vs. the rate of inflation declining.

A number of academic studies have shown that approximately 85% of investors are on the

long side and don't fade the mkt. As a result, there is a bullish bias to the mkt which can be

tough for Bears to deal with. As my late daytrader mentor said to me, "If you're right and

everybody else is wrong you're going to lose money" i.e. go with the flow. Although I'm a 

daytrader and don't carry trades overnight so the IT and LT really don't mean a whole lot

to me I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the SPX drop by 20% in 2024 to 3816. In the

category of laughter is the best therapy, if it turns out that I'm wrong about this I'll ask

Mark to delete this post.

[andr99]

I believe that it's not the fundamentals that make the stock market rise but the strong hands that are behind it. If they want, the market rises ad infinitum. The problem is that they have no interest to make it rise

indefinitely and once in a while they make it drop just to shake out the weak hands that always enter long at the top. It's a game and it becomes forecastable once you have seen it repeated multiple times. So,

pattern wise, to me the 2022 correction and the second half of 2023 correction are just............corrections inside a market that is directed to new all time highs and 2024 will make us see that. Presidential year and

an accomodative FED, what else do the market need to make it ?   

[4caster]

Good luck with believing that the fundamentals don't matter. Apple is a bellweather stock and its' sales

of iPhone 15 have been weakening since Oct. which is not good news for iPhone 16 and is not good

news for the electronic device industry as well. The FED will be accomodative in 2024 because the FED

folks will come to see that the economic aggregates are declining. End of discussion.

[andr99]

OK.........we will see who is right and who is wrong by the end of 2024.

[pdx5]

Fundamentals matter only in the long run. In short term what matters most is money flow. FED is a big factor. If FED keeps printing money, market is going to be bullish. But FED can not levitate the market for ever if fundamentals begin to tank. 

[andr99]

Fundamentals matter only in the long run. In short term what matters most is money flow. FED is a big factor. If FED keeps printing money, market is going to be bullish. But FED can not levitate the market for ever if fundamentals begin to tank. 

 

perfect analysis.........in early 1999 the average P/E of tech companies was skyrocketing, but at the end of the year they had doubled or more than doubled. In 2000 they started to give back all that manipulation

that had pushed them so highly. The concept is the same of the so called overbought condition. The market is overbought, but it can easily get more overbought and it can stay like that for a lot of time. It is clear

that eventually the card castle tumbles down, but it is also predictable that until they can, they will substain the stock market. So that in the long run, fundamentals count, but in the short term it's money flow that

counts.    

[12SPX]

And as I said in 1999 that the Nasdaq wouldn't make new highs for 15 years, I'm saying the same thing for the market now.  I was barely off.....As I have pointed out a bull market to me isn't a bull market until you see brand new highs and stick with it and that's what I think is going to happen with this market which is still sideways since the 2022 highs.  We have few more years to go like this with corrections and rallies in between as this is the year the economy is going to fall apart and I think its going to bad.  Personally I think Apple is going to hurt as its easy,,,, they are just plain boring now.  Iphone 16 that looks exactly the same as every other one, why buy it!!  The only cool thing is I still have the very 1st Iphone 1 first production line.  Myself and my friend were the coolest guys in town as no one could get one for awhile up here lol!! 

[4caster]

To say that the fundamentals only matter in the long run is factually incorrect. There have been

many instances when the fundamentals have impacted the mkt on a ST and IT basis. Look at

what happened when Trump shut down the economy because of Covid.There is a lot of impirical

data that show that liquidity, as defined as funds available for investing, has increased over time.

Consequently, the mkt has increased over time. However, even though liquidity has increased over

time the mkt has experienced corrections and bear markets. Consequently, it can be postulated

that liquidity is not the driving force as it relates to ST and IT moves in the mkt. During downturns

many investors park their funds in money market accounts and Treasuries. As a result, even though

liquidity hasn't declined during a mkt downturn the mkt went down. So, it all depends on your time

frame. Because liquidity increases over time LT investors should be ok, but with me LT is 5 hours.

There's a lot of impirical data that show that investors who "successfully" trade the mkt and fade

the mkt during downturns have better results over time than LT investors.The LT investors who

hang in there during a downturn, especially a bear mkt, might have to wait quite a while to see

their portfolios get back to even. One final point, the mkt is way too big to manipulate. In order

to manipulate the mkt there has to be collusion and I've never seen one single person who says

the mkt is manipulated come forth with any proof of collusion. I've seen some people who say

the Algos cause manipulation, but the Algos are programmed to be reactive to trends and just

because those who use Algos do the same thing it doesn't mean they engaged in collusion. I'm

of the opinion that those who say the mkt is manipulated do so because they can't come up with

a valid reason why the mkt is going against them.

[andr99]

I'm of the opinion that those who say the mkt is manipulated do so because they can't come up with

a valid reason why the mkt is going against them.

 

well I have called every market turns since the 29th of March 2022 included the market bottom of October 2022 and the market low of the 27th of October 2023. The only leg I missed since March 2022 was 

the correction of the 26th of July 2023. Apart this last one, I have been spot on since the 29th of March 2022. All posted in this site. And I continue to believe that stock markets are manipulated all over the world. 

Everyone keeps his own opinion and I don't pretend to convince anyone, but also it is not pleasant to hear that those who think markets are manipulated, are losers. It is a simple and wrong way to justify why 

there are people who think their own way and not our own.       

[12SPX]

Lets see what happens in the final hour here, long at 4753 and 16660