26 replies to this topic

[4caster]

Yesterday, highly respected Economist, David Rosenberg, said that he thinks the economic

aggregates will decline 1 to 2 % points in 2024. He pointed out that he thinks this situation

will take investors by surprise. I'll add my own comment here by saying that I thinks it'll take

the FED folks by surprise as well. Rosenberg wrote, "I think its premature to throw in the

recession towel like so many others have just because it hasn't happened yet". He said

that he thinks 2024 will be like 2007 and 2000. Rosenberg pointed out that although election

years typically see strong mkt gains he believes that won't be the case in 2024.

[12SPX]

Yup totally agree with that, gonna be a depressing year in the end economically and mostly sideways with the stockmarket....

[4caster]

I forgot to point out that Rosenberg is looking for the mkt to drop 27% in 2024.

[qqqqtrdr]

I don't know what is going to happen in 2024.    Right now profits matter, so there will be layoffs.   I'm currently working in wireless technology, so currently seeing the slowdown.  Apple Iphone upgrades use to be 2 to 3 year cycle on average have moved to a 4 to 5 year upgrade cycle for many users.  During the 5G migration in 2021-2022 many users updated there phones, so we should see increases in upgrades starting the next wave in Christmas of 2024.    There is not much difference between a phone you buy now vs one you bought 3 years ago, so why upgrade?

 

Personally, I do see the economy be driven primarily by home sales, and auto sales.   I still see strong demand for these items.   Layoffs could affect both if layoffs will create a snowball effect ( such in Tech in 2001 or Housing in 2008-2009 ). 

 

We had a strong 2023 market after two years of market turmoil.   I do think we can head higher here as we are mildly overbought medium term.    I think we have 10% left on the upside before we get heavily overbought.

[4caster]

More bad news. Today Foxconn Technologies, a large supplier and assembler of electronic devices,

reported that revenues during the final quarter of 2023 declined yr. over yr. and that revenues fell in

Dec. by 27%. The company attributed the sales decline to weak or flat sales in its' computer products,

smart consumer electronic products and even in its' cloud and networking products i.e. weakness

across the board. Yesterday the State of the Union news organization pointed out in an article that

later on this year billions of commercial mortgages will come due to be either paid off or refinanced.

Because commercial vacancy rates have soared in large cities it'll be tough to pay off or refinance

those mortgages resulting in an increase in defaults. Some economists are saying that this is one of

the reasons they see a recession this year. This morning's jobs report showed that 1 million additional

people dropped out of the workforce making the unemployment # very misleading. Because the RSI(2)

on the daily SPX chart is about 1.45 which is in very oversold territory I wouldn't be surprised to see a

ST dead cat bounce.

 

[4caster]

Gary Shilling is a highly regarded economist and financial advisor who is referred to by some

as a mkt prophet  because of his many years of accurately predicting the mkt. I met with Gary

several times when I was the portfolio mgr. of a state retirement fund before I began trading

the mkt on a full time basis and have a lot of respect for him. In late Dec. Gary pointed out on

a podcast with David Rosenberg that he's looking for the SPX to drop by 25-30% in 2024 which

is even more than the 20% drop that I'm looking for. Gary pointed out that he's looking for a

recession this year and thinks that layoffs will accelerate as we go further into 2024. He also

pointed out that soft landings are rare and only happened once since the post war era which was

in the mid 90's. Gary also said that he doesn't see the FED cutting rates until the summer. He

didn't say so but I'm saying that I think the FED folks will be behind the curve and not see the

falling economic aggregates until later on this year. Gary also said that we're already seeing

a weakness in corporate profits. One of the indicators I follow is the Coppock Curve which I

follow with the settings 8,5,2 although Stockcharts uses the settings14,11,10. The COPP(8,5,2)

typically gives a sell signal when the 8,5,2 drops below 0 which it did on Aug. 1st, Sept. 5th,

Oct. 18th and Dec. 29th. Unfortunately, the COPP doesn't provide input as it relates to the 

duration or magnitude of the downturn. The COPP(8,5,2) typically gives a buy signal when it

drops down to -7.5 which it did on Sept. 27th and Oct. 27th. It currently is at -3.08 and is

trending down.

[andr99]

I know a guy who has made 150% in the last five years trading stocks while following the spx underlying trend, long and short. He is STRONGLY BULLISH for the spx in 2024. And his results are real and verified.

I'm not bullish because of him, I'm bullish because of myself, but better to have him on the same side than on the other one.  

Edited by andr99, 07 January 2024 - 02:23 PM.

[4caster]

i had planned to take a break from posting on here but I just have to respond to your post. 

Your guy is up only 150% trading long & short over the past 5 years? Those are

PATHETIC results. Your guy might want to think about getting into a different line

of work. Adios.

[Douglas]

4Caster, thanks for pointing out the Coppock curve of the SPX with your 8,5,2 settings.  There are so many indicators at Stockcharts.com and so many setting combinations that I haven't spent any time looking at this Coppock curve set up.  I see the -7.5 buy signals and the zero crossing sell signals.  Divergence and relative divergence also seem to give useful signals although they can be early.  Clearly, all in all the Coppock is something that I need to spend more time tinkering with.  Thanks again.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[andr99]

30% yearly return is not that bad and is not so easy to be found in the internet community. Which doesn't mean we can't have higher returns..............He is howevere a voice out of the so callled chorus and he is usually right

about his forecasts. I just wanted to point that out, more than how much he makes for his subscribers (only he knows what he makes for himself taking some bigger risks which thing he can't do for his subscribers  

given that he musr keep a conservative approach for them). However, in 12 months we know who is right and who is wrong. Pathetically or not.