17 replies to this topic

[4caster]

Last week the MACD(12,26,9) and the MFI(14) on the daily SPX chart were flat while the SPX

went up, not confirming the move up in the SPX and is now getting in sync with the MACD(12,26,9)

and the MFI(14) on the daily INDU chart which declined putting in negative divergence. Also,

former chief Economist with the IMF and currently a professor of Economics at Harvard Kenneth Rogoff said in

an interview with Bloomberg TV that he thinks that the soft landing scenario is a pipe dream. He

pointed out that he sees a recession in 2024 and that it could possibly be a deep recession. He

pointed out that the FED may have to lower rates  as many as 15 times. Also, the Mortgage

Bankers Association reported that the office building delinquency rate rose to 6.5% in the 4th Q

of 2023 vs. 5.1% in the 3rd Q. I think this rate will go higher as we go further into 2024.

[4caster]

One of the things that Rogoff said in that interview is something I've agreed with for

quite a while, "If there's anything markets can be sure about, it's that the market

consensus is going to be wrong".

[fib_1618]

,"If there's anything markets can be sure about, it's that the market

consensus is going to be wrong".

 

Or as the old timers like to say: trending market's do not like company...advancing trends are "walls of worry"; declining markets are "slopes of hope".

 

Fib

 

[Rogerdodger]

"a professor of Economics at Harvard Kenneth Rogoff said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that he thinks that the soft landing scenario is a pipe dream."

 

He is either right or wrong.

Either way, he got noticed...

Isn't that what really matters?

 

I used to rush to Barnes and Nobles every weekend to read opinions from the experts in the latest Barrons Magazine.

Then I realized that if they were that good, they wouldn't waste time giving out opinions.

 

That's my opinion, anyway.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 17 January 2024 - 03:56 PM.

[fib_1618]

Then I realized that if they were that good, they wouldn't waste time giving out opinions.

 

That's my opinion, anyway.    (cue rim shot)

 

Opinions are fine as they create discussion, however, providing an opinion without due diligence (examples) can be dangerous to one's health...whether it's physical or financial.

 

Fib

[4caster]

Yesterday the RSI(2) on the daily SPX chart closed at about 9, in oversold territory, so this bounce

was to be expected. However, the MACD(12,26,9) on the daily SPX chart put in a crossover to the

downside side on Dec. 29th and is continuing to decline today, not confirming this bounce. If I were a

Bull I wouldn't get too excited about this bounce unless the 12,26,9 does a crossover to the upside.

If we see the SPX go up to 4800 here ST and then we see it put in a triple top it wouldn't be a good

thing for the Bulls.

[4caster]

If you overlay the SPX chart on the ITBMNYA chart you'll see an amazing divergence that began

on Jan. 4th.

[Douglas]

4caster, it does seem the broad indexes have lost momentum as one would expect after such a big, long rally and into a new tax year for selling.  In addition to the ITBM, the McClellan oscillator that the ITBM is based on has also made a nice break below "0" and a back test in the last week or so adding fuel to the bear fire.  The real test will be how the next rally behaves after the tax gain selling is done and dusted.  Has the tide turned, or is this just the pause that refreshes before the next rocket ride higher?  I suppose figuring this out might take into the middle of February unless things get a lot more energetic soon.  

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[4caster]

Douglas, thanks for putting that chart on here. The Bulls are making quite a statement this

morning. I've seen before when the indices move in defiance of the indicators. This is one

of the reasons that I'm glad I'm a day trader and don't carry trades overnight.

[Douglas]

Well, at least I didn't have long to wait to be proven wrong. I suppose it's better to be run over quickly than to be on the wrong side in a fight right up to the bitter end.  I did say "...unless things get a lot more energic soon." and boy is it full of energy today.  Another day or two like this and the indexes will have left the "refreshing pause" way back in the dust.  Now where the heck did I put that alternative Ewave count...

 

Regards,

Douglas