133 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Update on ASIAN markets: JAPAN MELTUP continues, CHINA & HK still near multiyear lows but rallied late last week:
"An interest rate decision in China kicks off the week in Asia on Monday with investors hoping - forlornly, perhaps - that the central bank will provide some much-needed relief for the country's sluggish economy and creaking markets.



This will be followed by the Bank of Japan's policy decision and guidance the next day - an equally-anticipated event, but for different reasons - meaning trading activity and volume should start the week on a strong note.



Especially in foreign exchange.



The Chinese yuan and Japanese yen both go into their respective central bank meetings on the defensive against the dollar. The yuan last week touched a two-month low and the yen's accumulated year-to-date losses reached 5%."

[dTraderB]

REUTERS: Key developments that could provide more direction to ASIAN markets on Monday:
China interest rate decision
Malaysia CPI inflation (December)
Hong Kong CPI inflation (December)

Update on ASIAN markets: JAPAN MELTUP continues, CHINA & HK still near multiyear lows but rallied late last week:
"An interest rate decision in China kicks off the week in Asia on Monday with investors hoping - forlornly, perhaps - that the central bank will provide some much-needed relief for the country's sluggish economy and creaking markets.



This will be followed by the Bank of Japan's policy decision and guidance the next day - an equally-anticipated event, but for different reasons - meaning trading activity and volume should start the week on a strong note.



Especially in foreign exchange.



The Chinese yuan and Japanese yen both go into their respective central bank meetings on the defensive against the dollar. The yuan last week touched a two-month low and the yen's accumulated year-to-date losses reached 5%."

[dTraderB]

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) posted at 9:40 AM on Sun, Jan 21, 2024:
Key Events This Week:

1. Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday

2. Core Durable Goods Orders - Thursday

3. Q4 2023 GDP data - Thursday

4. New Home Sales data - Thursday

5. December PCE Inflation data - Friday

6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings

We are 1 week out
(https://x.com/Kobeis...2314423549?s=03)

[dTraderB]

62-38 bullish poll

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 2:03 PM on Sat, Jan 20, 2024:
The results are in and folks lean bullish this week. It is the most bullish since the week ending 10/5.

Thanks for voting!!! https://t.co/VSBlWvnjev
(https://x.com/hmeisl...0641192277?s=03)

Edited by dTraderB, 21 January 2024 - 07:15 PM.

[dTraderB]

Still below -100
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

FUNDSTRAT:
"Despite last weeks milestone, our general roadmap for markets remains the same: We see challenges and possibly a correction in the first half, then a rally from there into year-end.
With the Market Hitting New Highs, Is This a 'Risk-On' Moment?
We closed out last week with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, an unambiguously positive milestone. Yet the celebratory mood at Fundstrat was somewhat muted this week. Head of Research Tom Lee argued that the easy money has been made for now. As he has previously written, the beginning of January tends to foreshadow how the full year will play out, and in his view, the sloppy trading we have seen thus far is a reminder to expect a challenging year. He said, We are now overbought [] so this is not a full risk-on market.

Its true that the indices have been holding up the S&P has been somewhat flat year to date and the Nasdaq is up almost 1%, he acknowledged. However, those owning individual stocks might have noticed a lot more tumult and turmoil, he said.

Or, as Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton put it, Technology, the trickster, has been at work again, making the U.S. Equity market seem flat, he said. When excluding Technology, this year has actually gotten off to a rough start and most sectors are down, despite what the indices seem to suggest.

[12SPX]

Quite the ending to expiration on Friday but not sure it was related except institutions getting their shorts on maybe lol!!  New highs all around and the bulls are out in droves.  I've mentioned we may hit all time highs but still say it isn't a true bull till were solidly above the previous level so we'll see how it plays out in the next month.  With bond rates still on the rise, call options way to expensive, market overbought and fundamentally super expensive I'd rather stay on the short side for now as one little surprise comes out to this extended market and you could easily see a -3-5% correction, then maybe I'd go long.  With another gap opening coming up I added to my short with an average on the ES at 4828 and 17292, ndx.  One thing for sure is its really easy to sell calls for the upcoming expiration cycle also as you can go pretty far out and make a nice premium.  Although the 5000 level is within my numbers its still a nice round number to sell for February at $17 for a trade!!!

[dTraderB]

4 hours sleep since 8pm last night when CHINA & HK maekets opened. Big swings ....
also NQ.
NQ HEDGE LONG 17520

[dTraderB]

Down 0.83% last week after 2 good weeks in 2021. More HEDGE LONG trading as market makes new highs, but most losses in CHINA, HK,TLT & PUTS. RISK ON now as markets make new highs. Will keep one or two lots NQ dayteading LONG for most of time ... cannot monitor & trade ES & NQ at the same time with these markets

[12SPX]

And there we go with another gap open and doubles down so average ndx short trade now 17456, ES 4859...