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Economy "no longer heated" Sept Cut @ 70%


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 09 July 2024 - 12:07 PM

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#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 July 2024 - 04:37 PM

What happens not long after that?


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#3 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 11 July 2024 - 12:16 PM

We have seen many times before that when rates start dropping they continue to drop, then the stock market drops.      Personally we are in a new setup.   Interest rates drop will pull money from HYSA to stocks.    This will not really start happening until the 3rd .25 pt drop.   There is built up demand for homes and need for competition which require lower rates.    With that said, I do think the economy will reheat too much if we cut more than .75 basis points.  



#4 linrom1

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Posted 11 July 2024 - 01:13 PM

We have seen many times before that when rates start dropping they continue to drop, then the stock market drops.      Personally we are in a new setup.   Interest rates drop will pull money from HYSA to stocks.    This will not really start happening until the 3rd .25 pt drop.   There is built up demand for homes and need for competition which require lower rates.    With that said, I do think the economy will reheat too much if we cut more than .75 basis points.  

Fiscal dominance?
 



#5 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 11 July 2024 - 04:58 PM

Well the government cannot really afford to spend more so we are at a Fiscal Dominance.    We have money flowing in society, and pent up demand.    Basically, we are on the verge to have the economy be strong.  

 

1) AI infrastructure

2) Solar power will start to take hold.

3) Home building boom will start

 

Yes it will be a slow start, but these should accelerate.