68 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

VST, watch out for profit taking/selling on the news .........................

Now let's see how the market will react to NVDA report out Wed, Aug 28th ............................

[redfoliage2]

I'd not go too bearish at NVDA earnings report as there is a good chance for it to beat ...............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 28 August 2024 - 01:42 PM.

[redfoliage2]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit

The title should be changed into "NQ Back into Bullish Trend"

Now no need to change the title as QQQ and NDX following NQ back into their LT bullish trend............................

 

ST we are likely to see SPX and NDX regaining their previous highs just before the recent correction, or even new highs .......................

 

Now it looks more likely new highs if Powell says something the market likes at the JH conference.......................

 

VST I'd not be surprised if we see some consolidation ...........................

 

It's understandable traders are taking profit today with concerns that the Fed may under-deliver at the JH meeting .........................

 

But I see the market is likely going higher into the Sept meeting as long as the Fed chief indicates cutting rate in Sept....................

 

Why I see the market going higher into the Sept meeting?  Because we won't really know how much the Fed will cut till the Fed Sept meeting scheduled Sept 17-18 and before that it's just anybody's guess as Powell is unlikely to provide details of rate cutting plan at the JH conference ............................. ...................

 

 

 

BTW, as the Fed's current priority has shifted, leaning toward supporting maximum employment for the economy Powell is more likely to sound dovish at the HJ conference though without giving much details about how much the Fed will cut in Sept .................................... 

 

The yield for 10-year T-bond still dropping today as well as USD......................................

 

By the end of last week there were some 6.2 trillions USD parked in the money market enjoying the current rate.  As the Fed starting lowing the rate where this money will go?  Likely stock market is one of the places and this is another reason we are likely to see SPX and NAZ making new highs ..........................

 

It is a huge liquidity pool supporting the continuous running of the current bull market in the time the Fed is lowing the rate.  So dips always get bought in this kind environment.......................

 

As NVDA earnings beat the expectations on both the top and bottom lines and on its outlook for next quarter the market is moving up toward the Fed Sept meeting day on the narrative of Soft Landing ..........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 August 2024 - 09:03 AM.

[redfoliage2]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edit

The title should be changed into "NQ Back into Bullish Trend"

Now no need to change the title as QQQ and NDX following NQ back into their LT bullish trend............................

 

ST we are likely to see SPX and NDX regaining their previous highs just before the recent correction, or even new highs .......................

 

Now it looks more likely new highs if Powell says something the market likes at the JH conference.......................

 

VST I'd not be surprised if we see some consolidation ...........................

 

It's understandable traders are taking profit today with concerns that the Fed may under-deliver at the JH meeting .........................

 

But I see the market is likely going higher into the Sept meeting as long as the Fed chief indicates cutting rate in Sept....................

 

Why I see the market going higher into the Sept meeting?  Because we won't really know how much the Fed will cut till the Fed Sept meeting scheduled Sept 17-18 and before that it's just anybody's guess as Powell is unlikely to provide details of rate cutting plan at the JH conference ............................. ...................

 

 

 

BTW, as the Fed's current priority has shifted, leaning toward supporting maximum employment for the economy Powell is more likely to sound dovish at the HJ conference though without giving much details about how much the Fed will cut in Sept .................................... 

 

The yield for 10-year T-bond still dropping today as well as USD......................................

 

By the end of last week there were some 6.2 trillions USD parked in the money market enjoying the current rate.  As the Fed starting lowing the rate where this money will go?  Likely stock market is one of the places and this is another reason we are likely to see SPX and NAZ making new highs ..........................

 

It is a huge liquidity pool supporting the continuous running of the current bull market in the time the Fed is lowing the rate.  So dips always get bought in this kind environment.......................

 

As NVDA earnings beat the expectations on both the top and bottom lines and on its outlook for next quarter the market is moving up toward the Fed Sept meeting day on the narrative of Soft Landing ..........................

 

BTW, NVDA earnigns report and its conference show the unabated momentum and interest in the AI field .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 August 2024 - 10:19 AM.

[redfoliage2]

So we are likely to see the market at new highs soon.  Maybe as soon as tomorrow as tomorrow's PCE likely lower per the recent trend and the 0.25% PCE price component in the GDP data released today .......................  

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 August 2024 - 12:52 PM.

[redfoliage2]

What's happening with this sudden dropping that have removed all the gains for the day?   PCE data leaked out?...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 August 2024 - 01:51 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Well, it looks big players are expecting a Sept. Curse  .......................... 

Edited by redfoliage2, 30 August 2024 - 12:44 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Well, it looks big players are expecting a Sept. Curse  .......................... 

That's why recently bounces got sold .............................

[redfoliage2]

From here to the Fed meeting day the market is likely data dependent.  For tomorrow we are going to have JOLTs job opening and the Fed Beige book; Thursday ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and Friday NFP ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 03 September 2024 - 09:59 AM.

[redfoliage2]

Now the market is in extremely over-sold conditions and I see a bounce is in the cards for tomorrow if the JOLTs job data not as bad as feard ...........................