I think volatility is going to kick up again just on the fact that call options are pricing in the stratosphere once again. Always think they can't get any worse lately but they seem to be. They're such a great sell as the hopers think they'll get 2% moves every day. Plus you have the fact that the market is overbought, the bond rally is long in the tooth and the Vix isn't coming down that much, its getting interesting as we approach old highs....
Will Jackson Hole Signal Risk-On?
Started by
dTraderB
, Aug 18 2024 05:49 PM
99 replies to this topic
#41
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 09:16 AM
ABSOLUTELY! THAT'S WHY I AM NET FLAT TO LONG ON ES, NQ WITH HUGE QQQ, SPY PUT POSITION, LONG A FEW STOCKS, LOBG TKT, SELLING A FEW OR MORE NVDA CALLS as it rises above 130...
#42
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 09:18 AM
Will buy a few VIX CALLS...SMCI PUTS on aby rally
ABSOLUTELY! THAT'S WHY I AM NET FLAT TO LONG ON ES, NQ WITH HUGE QQQ, SPY PUT POSITION, LONG A FEW STOCKS, LONG TLT, SELLING A FEW OR MORE NVDA CALLS as it rises above 130...
I think volatility is going to kick up again just on the fact that call options are pricing in the stratosphere once again. Always think they can't get any worse lately but they seem to be. They're such a great sell as the hopers think they'll get 2% moves every day. Plus you have the fact that the market is overbought, the bond rally is long in the tooth and the Vix isn't coming down that much, its getting interesting as we approach old highs....
#43
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 09:26 AM
NOTE: Too many assume the FED:
- is in full control of the economy, markets
- can totally control deflation & inflation, jobs, housing etc
- can & will adjust quickly and/or change course
- will not again make a serious error in INTEREST RATE/INFLATION adjustmebts. I believe the FED has already erred as they did in being too late to raise rates. That error is less damaging than the CURRENT ONE: DELAY IN CUTTING RATES
- Recent revision in JOBS DATA appear to be a FED CYA strategy
- is in full control of the economy, markets
- can totally control deflation & inflation, jobs, housing etc
- can & will adjust quickly and/or change course
- will not again make a serious error in INTEREST RATE/INFLATION adjustmebts. I believe the FED has already erred as they did in being too late to raise rates. That error is less damaging than the CURRENT ONE: DELAY IN CUTTING RATES
- Recent revision in JOBS DATA appear to be a FED CYA strategy
#44
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 09:31 AM
This is why I started selling COVERED CALLS:
flowtopia.co (@flowtopia_co) posted at 10:19 AM on Thu, Aug 22, 2024:
$NVDA
$130.00 is a big spot for $NVDA to break. All week we've seen big money sell covered calls at the $130-$135 strike.
If $NVDA can break $130.00, big money is targeting $135.00 next. As of now we wait. Some naked calls just came in so it could be soon. https://t.co/DgBtuzVbot
(https://x.com/flowto...0198186297?s=03)
flowtopia.co (@flowtopia_co) posted at 10:19 AM on Thu, Aug 22, 2024:
$NVDA
$130.00 is a big spot for $NVDA to break. All week we've seen big money sell covered calls at the $130-$135 strike.
If $NVDA can break $130.00, big money is targeting $135.00 next. As of now we wait. Some naked calls just came in so it could be soon. https://t.co/DgBtuzVbot
(https://x.com/flowto...0198186297?s=03)
Will buy a few VIX CALLS...SMCI PUTS on aby rally
ABSOLUTELY! THAT'S WHY I AM NET FLAT TO LONG ON ES, NQ WITH HUGE QQQ, SPY PUT POSITION, LONG A FEW STOCKS, LONG TLT, SELLING A FEW OR MORE NVDA CALLS as it rises above 130...
I think volatility is going to kick up again just on the fact that call options are pricing in the stratosphere once again. Always think they can't get any worse lately but they seem to be. They're such a great sell as the hopers think they'll get 2% moves every day. Plus you have the fact that the market is overbought, the bond rally is long in the tooth and the Vix isn't coming down that much, its getting interesting as we approach old highs....
#45
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 09:54 AM
Boughr Smci 610 call, add if it drops
#46
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 10:37 AM
Nq long 19778.5
Es long 5622.75
Net long 2 each
Will hold all qqq, spy puts. Will daytrade es, nq, anytime, more flexible since trading almost 24 hours
Es long 5622.75
Net long 2 each
Will hold all qqq, spy puts. Will daytrade es, nq, anytime, more flexible since trading almost 24 hours
#47
redfoliage2
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 10:50 AM
It looks there is pre-Fed profit taking going on, but the dip is likely to be bought as soon as Powell started talking tomorrow morning .........................
Edited by redfoliage2, 22 August 2024 - 10:51 AM.
#48
12SPX
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 10:53 AM
Always flipping lol!! The interesting thing is were this far down here and options are still holding their prices!!! Going to make for an interesting afternoon of trading.....
#49
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 11:26 AM
Frenetic 2-hourtrading ... even daytrading options!
#50
dTraderB
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Posted 22 August 2024 - 11:29 AM
I added longs... hard to be be VST bearish with POWELL ready to signal change in policy tomorrow. But, I am positioning for big drop when markets realize FED has again blundered badly.
Always flipping lol!! The interesting thing is were this far down here and options are still holding their prices!!! Going to make for an interesting afternoon of trading.....
