My risk summation system projects that the day this coming week with highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Thursday December 26, but the risk values for the other three trading days next week are also above normal so it might be a bit of a bumpy ride on old Santa's sleigh next week.
Last week the high for the week and the end of some sort of horizontal consolidation before the plunges down was in the Monday risk window, a turn down hard inside a down trend I guess. The Friday risk window caught what appears to be a double bottom looking low depending on action this coming week.
A couple of weeks ago I posted a dollar plot with my risk windows and noted the upcoming currency risk windows were December 11th and 18th. The results are shown below. The 11th was the end of a brief uptrend, not too exciting, but the 18th risk window caught a dollar rocket launch, very nice. I'll try to work out the upcoming currency risk window(s) and post them as a response later this week.
The NVDA triangle that I posted a few weeks ago is still working as long as the turquoise trend line is not broken with a projection down to 101 or so.
As I predicted Something Wicked Did This Way Come. It was that grinch, J. Powell, all hawkish probably finally realizing that he's going to have to take the steam out of the labor market if he wants to actually get down to 2% inflation. His pivot back to worrying about inflation was definitely wicked, more of a Halloween trick than a Christmas present.
EWave wise both my primary bullish and alternate bearish counts are still in play, so not much help, but with a little luck the winner should be clear by the first week in January 2025.
Finally a week or so ago I commented that an SMH plot posted by Slupert looked bearish right at the orange arrow, wrong. SMH proceeded to break the triangle, defy the double top and head back up. So much for my chart pattern reading and prognostication skills.
Have a Merry Christmas,
Douglas
