24 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Maybe there is more of a correction to come but it would not surprise Senor if Thursday's low was the bottom. Clean em out and go right back up, a muy nasty bull is what Senor thinks. BSing away Senor

[SilentOne]

Senor, I'm thinking gold and silver, and possibly the HUI may all do triangles over the next few days. Not much downside risk IMO. Yesterday may have been the best time to buy in that case. cheers, john

[greenie]

Senor, what do you think of Mark Hulbert saying gold newsletter commentator sentiment being near all time high??

[senorBS]

Senor, what do you think of Mark Hulbert saying gold newsletter commentator sentiment being near all time high??

To be honest that worries me somewhat amigo. But if we are in a tres wave norte then at some point sentiment will get and stay muy bullish for a long period. Look at Inv. Intelligence for the past DOS years in the stock market! No guarantees eh amigo?

BS all the way

Senor

[whall]

Senor, what do you think of Mark Hulbert saying gold newsletter commentator sentiment being near all time high??

To be honest that worries me somewhat amigo. But if we are in a tres wave norte then at some point sentiment will get and stay muy bullish for a long period. Look at Inv. Intelligence for the past DOS years in the stock market! No guarantees eh amigo?

BS all the way

Senor

Senor, what do you think of Mark Hulbert saying gold newsletter commentator sentiment being near all time high??

To be honest that worries me somewhat amigo. But if we are in a tres wave norte then at some point sentiment will get and stay muy bullish for a long period. Look at Inv. Intelligence for the past DOS years in the stock market! No guarantees eh amigo?

BS all the way

Senor

checkout NAK

[Tor]

Sorry, But It's Time For Another Caution Flag and First Red Flag By Peter Grandich April 20, 2006 www.grandich.com The comments I’m about to make are certainly not going to be to everyone’s fancy and some will end up calling me something far worse than a party-pooper. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how important honesty is to you), I think it’s real close to another one of those “steps back” in the “two steps up, one step back” mode I’ve often spoken about in describing the price rise in this secular bull market in metals. In addition to the caution, I’m now going to wave my first red flag (NASCAR fans will understand the difference between a yellow and red flag) on any metal since turning bullish on them back in the spring of 2003. I only hope you will still love and respect me in the morning. Overview It’s been nothing short of a sensational ride I’ve enjoyed since returning to the metals arena in the spring of 2003. My history will show that when it comes to precious metals (gold, silver and PGMs) I’ve managed to correctly foresee every major up and down move. The same was true for base metals until a year ago when I first chose to suggest overweighting in precious metals. While that proved to be okay thanks to spectacular rises in the precious metals, the fact is I became far too cautious on copper prematurely. Now, I’m going even one step further in daring to suggest it’s time to be actually bearish (assume prices are actually going to decline over time) on copper. I’ve operated on the assumption that the great bear market in commodities in the 90s, especially in the metals, allowed a “once-in-a-lifetime” buying opportunity to occur and I think up until now I’ve done a good job in taking advantage of it. The bad news is- the easy money is now gone. The world has finally woken up to the fact and they are all rushing through a rather narrow door to get their share of the “new world order”. This stampede can continue for a period but I’m never happy being in a boat that was once nearly empty and is now standing room only. Some will view the following as pure sarcasm, some as distaste, but those who know me will realize it’s neither. It’s the truth as I see it: TOUT-TV (CNBC-TV) has once again missed almost an entire move and, during the dramatic rise in commodities, had mostly “bearish” forecasters on the air. A case in point that clearly shows the 180 degree turn around they have now made in order to give the appearance that they are indeed the “world leader in business reporting”, was seen a few days ago. On the “home for lunatics” broadcast they call “Mad Money,” mad man Jim Cramer stated how he now loves base metals and devoted nearly a whole show to it. So why does this mean anything? Well, unlike my neighbors to the north, who are blessed with a “real” balanced and unbiased business network like Canada’s ROB-TV, I only have TOUT-TV for most of the day. And, for what was at least many months, if not more than a year, CNBC ran a commercial for “Mad Money” where you would hear Cramer stated on an actual show “Commodities are Dead.” (Ah, I can hear many readers silently in their hearts recalling this). So, now, after 200%, 500% 1,000% increases, TOUT-TV’s number one Market “Guru” now loves base metals. Makes you warm and comfy, no? What’s worse is the fact that the stocks he mentions are going through the roof. Please, that’s not envy but a realization that when crowds are willing to pay just about anything from someone whose history in that area leaves much to be desired, the froth is clear and the inevitable fall is never too far down the road. I’m traveling out of the country and upon my return mid next week, I will then be out if the office for a few days in celebration of both making it to the age of 50 and my wife putting up with me for 25 years. Therefore, I’m likely a little early on the caution side but wanted you to at least know what was in my heart and mind. Gold The danger in secular bull markets is trying to time and profit from the blips of profit-taking or the corrections to very overbought conditions. If you’re strictly a long-term player (one assumes that means your time horizon is more than the time to boil an egg or even a calendar year), then you shouldn’t be overly concerned about corrections. I do think we will end up substantially higher from here, but before then, a significant correction is likely on the way to $700. It is likely to come out of left field, be vicious, and if the past is any indication, should bring out what’s left of the bears pronouncing the end of the bull market-again! Hopefully, I will once again receive a rash of nervous-nellie emails and even those nasty vulgar ones. They always reassure me I did the right thing. My concern would be total complacency. Silver Here too, prices should eventually be substantially higher before it’s all said and done. But even more so than gold, silver is subject to a sharp correction that could scare the weak and faint of heart. PGMs I have written often about platinum and palladium being the most balanced of all the metals and that the spread between platinum and palladium should narrow in favor of palladium. It has narrowed by palladium rising over 70% while platinum has risen by about half that. I don’t see any sharp corrections here and I continue to favor the small minority of companies that specialize in exploring, developing and producing these metals. Copper At $3 a pound, I can no longer “Not” be bearish longer term. Yes, I recently stated we could see a parabolic rise to as high as $3 but felt it was the end of something, not the beginning. The feeding frenzy could even overshoot $3 but in my heart of hearts, I couldn’t put any new money into copper now. Again, this doesn’t mean sell all your copper stocks, but I myself am going to make sure I’m seriously underweighted going forward. I guess my red flag now makes me a copper bear. Who just shouted “off with his head”? Uranium It’s best to just use a phrase I often used to describe my opinion on it – LOVE IT! Oil I think oil should be a guest on the show “Fear Factor” as it’s the fear of a disruption of oil supplies, not the current supply-versus-demand factors that are driving prices. The Iraqi situation is a loss now, even if we actually end up achieving what was set out to reach, because the costs of lives and dollars have been far too great. But Iran is the real flash point going forward and as long as sable rattling is in the news on a daily basis, the fact that the current supply of oil is at a nearly-10-year high is not going to have a major impact any time soon. I am by no means an oil bull but since I paid dearly in the past trying to catch a falling sword, I’ll stand aside for now. U.S. Dollar Read my recent special alert The King is Dead! The only people who don’t know are the Larry Kudlow’s of the world and the sheep who follow them. GRANDICH PUBLICATIONS, LLC. P.O. Box 243 o Perrineville, NJ 08535 www.Grandich.com phone o 732-642-3992 email • Peter@Grandich.com **** Grandich Publications, Inc. provides research, analysis, and investor relation services for certain of the companies featured in the articles appearing in its publications (each a “Featured Company”). Featured Companies may pay fees to Grandich Publications, Inc. that may include securities-based compensation that would appreciate if the company’s stock price rises. Accordingly, there is an inherent conflict of interest involved that may influence our perspective and provide an incentive for publishing favorable information with regard to a Featured Company. Grandich Publications has been given the right to exercise stock options. A complete list of options and share price (in Canadian dollars) is listed on the company website. Furthermore, most companies have entered into agreements to pay Grandich Publications a monthly fee. Fees are also listed on the website. The material herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended to, and does not constitute the rendering of investment advice or the solicitation or an offer to buy securities. The foregoing discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the “Act”). In particular, when used in the preceding discussion, the words “plan,” “confident that,” “believe,” “scheduled,” “expect,” or “intend to,” and similar conditional expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements subject to the safe harbor created by the Act. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any of the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, future events and the financial performance of the Company which are inherently uncertain and actual events and/or results may differ materially. This report may refer to “measured, indicated and/or inferred mineral resources”, which do not have demonstrated economic viability. Investors are cautioned not to assume that any part or all of the mineral deposits in these categories will ever achieve the status of “ore reserves”. A Preliminary Assessment is based on inferred resources that are geologically speculative, and as a result, there is no certainty that the economic considerations or results will be realized. Third party statements contained herein and information contained in any source cited herein are not endorsed by or adopted by Grandich Publications, LLC, nor has their accuracy been verified by Grandich Publications, LLC.

[Tor]

The Aden Forecast "The wild rise continues; gold, silver and copper continue their incredible surge. Everywhere you turn, the news favors rising metals. Rising energy, tension in Iran, higher inflation, rising interest rates, strong demand and a weaker dollar. They're truly a safe haven in uncertain times. Gold's A rise is clearly underway and with gold at new highs during a parabolic rise that started last year shows a super strong, heating up bull market. Gold is super strong above $590 and its indicator has room to rise further (see Webextra). GLD and IAU are soaring while our strongest gold shares remain the strongest at new highs, which are AEM, GLG, GG, UNWPX, TGLDX, SGLDX and SGLBX. These gold shares are now overbought as is GLD and IAU. Silver is also now at an extreme overbought area (see Webextra). In the past when it gets to these extremes a correction follows. Keep an eye on $12.20 as silver is super strong above it, but even if it declines to $10.60, the parabolic rise will continue. Silver shares are holding at the highs but they haven't been as strong as silver. CEF is soaring with silver and it's the closest proxy to a silver ETF; it's now overbought. Keep your gold and silver positions but don't buy new positions now. Copper has soared 38% in the last seven weeks and our recommended natural resource shares are rising to new highs with it. Copper's parabolic rise is solid above $2.38 (see Webextra) but BHP, PD, PSPFX and RTP are overbought. Keep your positions but don't buy new ones. Platinum, palladium and XAU are very strong above $1055, $312 and 141, respectively." (April 19, 2006)

[Jnavin]

I bow to Senor's greater wisdom...however, after a clear 5-wave pattern such as XAU's from the March low, a "1", the likelihood is that a full A-B-C corrective pattern will scare enough people back out to make the "3rd" possible later. I'd suggest that the 139/140 gap might be the target for the "C" and that a sharp sell-off in the market as a whole might take us there despite any strength or weakness in the metals themselves. Just guessing.

[Gold3600]

FF: This Gold stock bull is going to top along with everything else untill May 19, at the Bradley turn point as well as several other factors. Gold stocks are going much higher my friends, and then its around the world trip for me. Thanks for helping to improve my life all here and most of all senior. Lets ride this thing up and down together for the next 15? years to $3,600 gang!!! Jake

[greenie]

I bow to Senor's greater wisdom...however, after a clear 5-wave pattern such as XAU's from the March low, a "1", the likelihood is that a full A-B-C corrective pattern will scare enough people back out to make the "3rd" possible later.

I'd suggest that the 139/140 gap might be the target for the "C" and that a sharp sell-off in the market as a whole might take us there despite any strength or weakness in the metals themselves.

Just guessing.

I have exactly the same thought. Hope we are in the minority