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recession is here !!!


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#1 greenie

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 03:25 AM

next stop - depression, Nov '07.
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#2 2cents

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 05:10 AM

next stop - depression, Nov '07.





The "D" word? WOW. Greenie you haven't been your level headed self lately. I believe things are going to get pretty tough out there for 07 and it could last a while. Either way I hope you have a great year.

Edited by 2cents, 29 December 2006 - 05:10 AM.

My opinion isn't worth the HTML it's written on

#3 Tor

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 07:17 AM

Thats a statement Greenie!! Ive been as bearish as you and still am, but see this as the issue: 1. Economy going to mean revert, housing/credit problems are breaking in a big way. versus 2. Money supply going ballistic!!! And there are few places to go. Bonds will rise from here imo, maybe gold and also even stocks. Is this such a weird prospect even with a deteriorating economy. Personally I cant see how stocks can hold up in these conditions, but have little experience of how the money supply at such a pace can influence stocks. best to you.
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#4 Vector

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 08:25 AM

Whooooo Hoooooo This *is* great news! :lol:

#5 johngeorge

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 10:18 AM

next stop - depression, Nov '07.





Happy New Year greenie. :D



PS Depression hits in 2012. :P :ninja:
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#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 10:50 AM

I think some people going to be pretty surprised at just how strong the economy is especially in the first part of '07.

Having said that, I am BEARISH on stocks. Especially after mid-January.




Valley hiring gains steam

<H2>GROWTH IS BROAD, BEST IN 5 1/2 YEARS, OUTPACES STATE'S

By Nicole C. Wong

Mercury News

Silicon Valley's job market, which had posted slow, steady improvement, heated up in November, registering the strongest growth in 5 1/2 years.

The strong gains showed up in many industries as cautious employers, who had been holding back on hiring despite an improving economy, finally felt comfortable enough to loosen their belts a notch.

Employers in Santa Clara and San Benito counties added 13,900 jobs over the past 12 months, bringing local employment to 894,800 positions, the state's Employment Development Department said Friday. The November-to-November increase of 1.6 percent was the strongest the valley has experienced since April 2001 and even outpaced California's November employment growth of 1.1 percent, said Gary Schlossberg, a senior economist at Wells Capital Management.

The jobs report came amid other signs of economic vigor. The Nasdaq is up 8.9 percent so far this year, tech company profits are holding up and recent local surveys of consumer and executive confidence have been relatively strong.

Employers added 1,900 jobs in November compared with the month before, an increase that was more than double the average October-to-November gain since 1990.

Spectrum Economics Chairman Richard Carlson, who has been studying the valley's job market since 1975, said this is the ``first time I've been able to smile in a long time looking at these numbers.''

</H2>

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 December 2006 - 10:57 AM.

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#7 jawndissedi

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 11:48 AM

next stop - depression, Nov '07.


That seems to be the gist of this article from the Asia Times. I find it interesting that their views are diametrically opposed to most of what I see in the MSM here.

And I always though the Irish had a monopoly on congenital pessimism . . . :D

Happy New Year, Greenie.
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#8 greenie

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 11:53 AM

next stop - depression, Nov '07.


The "D" word? WOW. Greenie you haven't been your level headed self lately. I believe things are going to get pretty tough out there for 07 and it could last a while. Either way I hope you have a great year.



Hello 2cents,

I am just following numbers. The model here is simple. I am following the Florida housing market, which led the rest of the country in both the boom and bust. After the prices peaked in Florida, for a long time there was a holding pattern - sales falling but prices holding. What that means is that people were hoping the boom would come back and taking the houses out of market until then. Enough time has passed now and they realized that the boom is not coming back. Today I read that the sellers are cutting prices aggresively - 18-23% of peak appraisal value - to get the houses to sell.

If Florida really leads the rest of the country (all indicators suggest so), in 9-12 months people from the rest of the country will reduce prices by 18%. Given that the total housing price of the country is 19T, 18% of it is ~3T = 30% of GDP.

After 30% of GDP is lost (or even 1/4th of that), I do not see how a depression can be avoided.



Best,
Greenie


P. S. Danzman, I agree that all the above information are not applicable for short-term trading though.

Edited by greenie, 29 December 2006 - 11:54 AM.

It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#9 dcengr

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 12:09 PM

After 30% of GDP is lost (or even 1/4th of that), I do not see how a depression can be avoided.


Easy. Sounds of helicopter and money bags being dropped from the sky :lol:
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#10 greenie

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Posted 29 December 2006 - 12:16 PM

Hi SemiBizz, I agree that the tech job market is getting very strong - feels like Sept-Oct 2000. If valley business has such great outlook, why are the insiders selling stocks in Dec like there is no tomorrow? At least they could wait till Jan to avoid some taxes. Best, G. Happy new year to all of you !!!

Edited by greenie, 29 December 2006 - 12:18 PM.

It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !