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recession is here !!!

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#11 SemiBizz


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Posted 29 December 2006 - 12:36 PM

Hi SemiBizz,

I agree that the tech job market is getting very strong - feels like Sept-Oct 2000.

If valley business has such great outlook, why are the insiders selling stocks in Dec like there is no tomorrow? At least they could wait till Jan to avoid some taxes.

The job market is going to get better and better as the boomers retire, there's a shortage of trained people to replace them.

We both know that insiders are among some of the worst market-timers... otherwise, you know what they say... SELL HIGH. :redbull:

Edited by SemiBizz, 29 December 2006 - 12:42 PM.

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#12 jjc



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Posted 29 December 2006 - 12:42 PM

After 30% of GDP is lost (or even 1/4th of that), I do not see how a depression can be avoided.

Easy. Sounds of helicopter and money bags being dropped from the sky :lol:

What is that chinese proverb? "May you live in interesting times".

Tracking, and trading currencies may be the way to profit. IMHO. Betting on Doom and gloom pays off
well only in the extreme rare occasions things turn out for the absolute worst...

What's that quote of kisa's I like so much: "Any crisis you can see coming isn't a real crisis"

#13 greenie



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Posted 29 December 2006 - 03:27 PM

Folks, just wanted to be clear that this forecast of recession or depression has nothing to do with trading. Do not go and buy 10X leveraged futs as guaranteed money, just because the recession has started. Same goes for the coming depression. The forecasts are just for longer framework to provide context and only one of many inputs to decide on a trade (whatever timeframe it is). On the other hand, I have reasonably high confidence in the forecast. It is good that nobody else agrees with me, because Kisa's quote says "Any crisis you cannot see coming is a real crisis" :)
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing

It's the illiquidity, stupid !