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Still doing the big stretch


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#11 cgnx

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Posted 30 December 2006 - 06:38 PM

It generally takes more than a few good investments to make a great stock market. I have my list of great looking stocks but that was not the point. i'm talking the macro picture. Most folks have no clue as to anything beyond there own little micro world. That works fine for the most part. Seeing macro trends and being able to avoid disaster would be nice. Not too many avoid disaster. Maybe there is no escaping it. Maybe Cramer and his followers will all get rich buying all the stocks on his recommended list, it will all be so easy. Or he will be the new Pied Piper leading this new group of mega losers right off the cliff is more like it. Cramer is smart and has probably covered his tooshy but he is just the next Dan Dorfman. I like both Dan and Cramer. I love listening to anything to do with the market. I digress. Maybe the new p/e standard for stocks and valuation levels will be multiples of what they were years past because of liquidity levels. It doesnt make it right or a good investment. Doesnt mean you can't still make some money on the upside. :D
If it can be cornered, it will.

#12 da_cheif

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Posted 30 December 2006 - 10:58 PM

I think that was an excellent presentation. I believe he is absolutely correct about most of his beliefs . This is a poor excuse for a stock market. The scenario that could play out that he missed would be if the price of gold rises therefore bringing more into balance the ratios he saw that were out of whack.

It's very hard to believe that 2000 was not a serious end to a sick party that should take alot longer to heal. Valuations are still on the high side and fundamentally the numbers are weak.

I like Da-chief but basing his stocks to da moon theory on pure liquidity reasoning and some short term clx analysis is a little hokey.

Mutual Fund cash? Great point Chief?

How many great investments are out there? Not many.
I see you mentioning some penny stocks here and there and man if those are your investment picks, close to pathetic. mmam????? vlnc?

Prechters anaysis is fantastic. Facts. I love it.

"I think that was an excellent presentation>"....of course u do.......thats what happens when you listen to an articulate incompetent..........all articulate incompetents are very dangerous people.....hitler was one of those........the masses hung on his every word.....most people are lazy when it comes to independent thought......thats why there are so many lynch mobs n riots n ********......

#13 arbman

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 01:39 AM

I don't know about the big depressions, but there certainly a change in the leadership relatively speaking and it ain't pretty (except for 1992)...

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- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 31 December 2006 - 01:45 AM.


#14 Rogerdodger

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 02:46 AM

thats why there are so many lynch mobs n riots n ********......


Well put Cheif.

But a bit inarticulate. :lol:

#15 Vector

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 01:00 PM

'n ******** lol exactly, be careful of those types of guys. He's always VERY CONVINCING but his $$$-making track record sucks. When I first got into this yrs ago I did a 1 yr subscription 2 EWT and the only thing he made me was a loss. :lol: Lesson learned. You gotta learn your lessons fast in this game. Pie in the sky theories just don't cut it.

Edited by Vector, 31 December 2006 - 01:04 PM.


#16 securelstmile

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 01:14 PM

'n ********

lol

exactly, be careful of those types of guys. He's always VERY CONVINCING but his $$$-making track record sucks. When I first got into this yrs ago I did a 1 yr subscription 2 EWT and the only thing he made me was a loss. :lol:

Lesson learned. You gotta learn your lessons fast in this game. Pie in the sky theories just don't cut it.



We used to call that mental masturbation. A bunch of really smart people sitting around talking like they are smart and ******** and not getting anything done. It is just the intersection between boredom and ego.

I laugh because I remember being initially impressed by that nonsense but then I started to recognize the emperor had no clothes. It helps to learn that results matter.
The harder I work, the luckier I get.

#17 cgnx

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 03:34 PM

Nevermind Prechter, I'm talking about the facts. Mutual Fund cash levels? Price/Sales? PE Level? Dividend Yield level? Book Value? Overall market is a sorry investment. If musical chairs is your game fine.









I think that was an excellent presentation. I believe he is absolutely correct about most of his beliefs . This is a poor excuse for a stock market. The scenario that could play out that he missed would be if the price of gold rises therefore bringing more into balance the ratios he saw that were out of whack.

It's very hard to believe that 2000 was not a serious end to a sick party that should take alot longer to heal. Valuations are still on the high side and fundamentally the numbers are weak.

I like Da-chief but basing his stocks to da moon theory on pure liquidity reasoning and some short term clx analysis is a little hokey.

Mutual Fund cash? Great point Chief?

How many great investments are out there? Not many.
I see you mentioning some penny stocks here and there and man if those are your investment picks, close to pathetic. mmam????? vlnc?

Prechters anaysis is fantastic. Facts. I love it.

"I think that was an excellent presentation>"....of course u do.......thats what happens when you listen to an articulate incompetent..........all articulate incompetents are very dangerous people.....hitler was one of those........the masses hung on his every word.....most people are lazy when it comes to independent thought......thats why there are so many lynch mobs n riots n ********......


If it can be cornered, it will.

#18 Net

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 03:42 PM

I'm glad I listened to that presentation, even though my negative bias toward Prechter nearly had me taking a pass on it... i.e., "that same old story again" thinking. I did not read his book, but I do notice on Figure 23 (at 25:30 into the presentation) he is showing a chart from his book of the dow starting in the 1700's and peaking in 1999. Now, what's interesting about this chart published in 2000 (if it is, in fact, in his book), is that he is looking at the dow priced in gold. If that is truly how he presented his chart when the book was published (i.e., in gold) then Prechter is not quite so wrong in his analysis, at least from the perspective he's using with gold. Looking at figure 24 shows what happened between 1999 and 2006 relative to gold. For me, that's rather interesting, as it certainly appears he made the correct call about the dow vs gold, and nailed the exact year the decline would start on a 200+ year time scale. Then, in 1978 he made a forecast call (see figure 29 at about 33:15). That call was made when prices were relatively flat for 10 years, and sitting on the bottom of the ascending channel. On a 200 year time frame, when public sentiment was bearish and prices were sitting on the bottom of the channel, he forcast a rally including a "visable correction" (on a 200 year time scale) that would ultimately break prices above the upper channel (see figure 30 at about 33:40). When you look at his projection and the actual price history (2nd chart beneath the projection), the 1987 crash is clearly visible on both, as well as the upper channel break. I don't recall whether or not anyone looking at his 1978 projection noticed there would be a crash (relative to the time it occured) while prices were enroute to the upper channel and beyond... yet, that "blip" on the 200 year chart is clearly there and labeled in both, his prediction, and on the actual history chart. I find that compelling. Something Prechter did not mention but is visable in both the 1978 forecast and current chart, is the "Bump And Run Formation." I thought I learned this formation from Stockcharts Chart School, but I could not find the link to include with this post. Nicknamed, "BARF" (for what the market will do next), the Bump and Run Formation is where the price channel visibly steepens (requiring a new trend line) and upward price movement accelerates during the final phase of a rally, terminating the move. It's harder to see on Prechter's 1978 forecast, but clearly visable on the bottom chart showing actual history. On the actual history chart, prices rose about the same pace as the channel lines for a while after the 1987 crash, then hit an acceleration which turned the slope upward, breaking prices above the upper channel (BARF). His analysis and commentary about market sentiment is also compelling, and cannot be dismissed out-of-hand. I do remember from my studies that B wave rallies have higher bullish sentiment than what occurs at the actual market top. His analysis shows higher sentiment now. Where Prechter missed his call by a mile and then some, is that he expected the index in dollars to roll over much earlier, and that has not yet happened, which has discredited him. Prechter's forecast missed the more gradual rally that paralled the long term trendlines just after the 1987 crash and continued for some years, as the resumption of the steeper rally after that crash was much delayed. Looking at this 200 year chart, I do not see a rally that looks the same at any other time (gradual slope, parallel to the trend lines). The rallies and corrections all appear sharper. This gradual rally is unique on the chart, and perhaps this is why Prechter missed the call by a number of years. Perhaps it's also because he did not forcast the extent of the move above the upper trendline. So, perhaps now all of his analysis should be discredited too. Perhaps. The question remains is if prices will turn down and "play catch up" (to the downside) like what happened once before. Maybe gold will continue to adjust for the remaining 2/3s of the "silent crash." Maybe in terms of dollars, the market will remain strong with typical corrections that may be scary but will not end the bull market, and maybe Pretcher's silent crash pass everyone by completely unnoticed. Maybe...

Edited by Net, 31 December 2006 - 03:44 PM.


#19 cgnx

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Posted 31 December 2006 - 04:08 PM

I'm thinking that gold may rise strongly creating that devaluation Prech is talking about. Stock prices may remain stagnant. Perhaps gold can be the new wealth creator once again. When I began investing all the books claimed Gold to be the single best investment in history. It may once again emerge. i see gold as the single best investment class going forward.
If it can be cornered, it will.