4 replies to this topic

[gti_99]

Hi, Roger, despite some non-believers, your sentiment chart seems to work this time too. In fact it gave a very timely signal when you post it. What does it say now? Did it give that little jump to the bullish side? Thanks.

[Rogerdodger]

It followed the VIX: Off the charts Tuesday which gave us a rally Wednesday but then calmed down last night.
The AAII, etc should be interesting since those polls would be taken in the middle of all this.
Should see a drop from the record one year high 71 last week.


Let me say that I only saw "a top" and since the uptrendline was still in place, I was looking to go back long...until it failed.
I didn't see Tuesday's record book drop other than the obvious negative fundamentals which have been present thru the entire rally.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 March 2007 - 04:51 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Hey Roger, this is what we have. Remember, the II numbers come from LAST Friday, I believe. General Public Polls AAII reported 36.63% Bulls and 39.60% Bears vs. 53.85% Bulls and 22.31% Bears. This is a solid Bearish shift in the face of some not insignificant weakness. That's good news for the Bulls. These folks will be back in Buy territory on any sustained weakness. Investors Intelligence, disturbingly, reported that Bulls rose a bit to 50.5% vs. 50.0%, but Bears rose a bit to 24.20% vs. 22.20%. This occurred during a period that included some weakness. More confidence by the Bulls in a sloppy market is not good. Overall, this indicator remains in Sell territory, as it has for 19 weeks.

[Rogerdodger]

"This occurred during a period that included some weakness. More confidence by the Bulls in a sloppy market is not good."
Mark my guess is that the S&P uptrendline was still intact and nearing possible support...before Tuesday's drop:


Here's the chart I was referring to showing that jump to 71.
Wonder if this can get back down to the July low below 30?

I think a lot can be learned by looking at the May decline & VIX.
Especially their relationship to the BB's edges and it's median line.
Notice both times we got flatlined (on the VIX/SPX ratio) and then saw a squeeze in the BBs.
I was hoping to get a pop just back to the top BB Tuesday for a buy.
But when she blew thru the roof I posted that it looked like May redeux.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p75881869177&a=27927380&r=1186.png
Notice also that both selloffs followed a Big Hairy Purple Divergence!
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&i=p37941675807&a=30820282&r=4551.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 March 2007 - 10:01 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Nice work, Rog! And folks say you're just a pretty face!