13 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

we're approx 2 wks from the ideal time window for the upcoming 20 wk cycle low around march 19. SPX continues to hold at the nominal 20 wk cycle downside projection posted last week. no lower projections have been given, i expect a short term rally before the the 20 wk cycle low time window arrives. broader averages, NYSE, RUT, are acting stronger vs their downside projections, Value Line is the strongest, just tagging it's 20 wk projection line and holding. IMO that indicates the major trend remains up.

[esther231]

Much thanks.

[.Blizzard]

Do you have a wide stop for those longs? ...are you still long?

Edited by .Blizzard, 05 March 2007 - 03:55 PM.

[airedale88]

blizz, still long es, avg 1395.25. will add some more tomorrow on weakness, the stop will be a downside break of the nominal 40 wk fld (cycle projection line). that's about 1365 today on the SPX cash chart and is rising.

[.Blizzard]

blizz, still long es, avg 1395.25. will add some more tomorrow on weakness, the stop will be a downside break of the nominal 40 wk fld (cycle projection line). that's about 1365 today on the SPX cash chart and is rising.

Thanks

[arbman]

Airedale, the daily momentum of this move has never dropped below the 2 standard deviations of the 20 dma, it had a chance today and blew it. My guess is a gap down at the minimum, but more downside tomorrow. I'd rather sit tight on a short position than any periodic analysis. The periodic analysis is clearly not the place to be at the moment, the market is a mess. The downside target for any intermediate term long positions is around 1344 now, imho. For anything else, it is playing the bounces or ST trades in the long side...

Edited by kisacik, 05 March 2007 - 04:20 PM.

[Newcal]

airedale, Thank you for your posts. I have learned a great deal from them. However, I am a little confused by your lack of bearishness. The A/D has been atrocious and has surely given you a sell signal by now. Would'nt that suggest tht we have much lower prices coming into the 20-week cycle low? Thanks again, Newcal

[airedale88]

kisa, no doubt the normal cyclic swings are being overridden by exterior forces. at the same time. we are near the time window for an expected 20 wk cycle low, most averages are at or near expected 20 wk downside price projections except a few which are acting stronger vs their projection lines, so i'm willing to play for what i think can be a good bounce. i'm not loaded to the gills long so if i take a hit on a break of the 40 wk fld it'll just be a losing trade. i'm comfortable with the risk/reward.

[airedale88]

airedale,

Thank you for your posts. I have learned a great deal from them. However, I am a little confused by your lack of bearishness. The A/D has been atrocious and has surely given you a sell signal by now. Would'nt that suggest tht we have much lower prices coming into the 20-week cycle low?

Thanks again,

Newcal

newcal, the INDU envelope NYSE breadth system i follow has it's breadth indicator falling below the 0 line so it will not generate a buy signal at the present time and will need to do some work before it can. as posted some time back we are in a broad time window for a Hurst nominal 4.5 yr cycle bottom, 48 to 54 months from the last bottom of march 03. sample avg lengths indicate a late june/early july time frame. at the same time, cyclic trend larger than the 4.5 yr cycle has been very strong, creating (bullish) high right translated cycles including the current 20 wk cycle due in march. mixing this all together suggests to me a trading range market until the 4.5 yr low bottoms. we may be defining the bottom of this expected trading range now. i'm looking for an oversold rally based on the larger cyclic trend. i've also found over the yrs that sudden high amplitude movements against the cyclic trend (caused by non cyclic/fundamental events?) will have a quick snap back rally. as long as no lower cyclic price projections are generated, that rally should occur.

[Vector]

my IT cycle is quickly down to -50 chances r good it will go to -80 for the final IT bottom that was quick!