cycles
#1
Posted 05 March 2007 - 03:03 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 05 March 2007 - 03:33 PM
#3
Posted 05 March 2007 - 03:54 PM
Edited by .Blizzard, 05 March 2007 - 03:55 PM.
#4
Posted 05 March 2007 - 04:13 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#5
Posted 05 March 2007 - 04:17 PM
blizz, still long es, avg 1395.25. will add some more tomorrow on weakness, the stop will be a downside break of the nominal 40 wk fld (cycle projection line). that's about 1365 today on the SPX cash chart and is rising.
Thanks
#6
Posted 05 March 2007 - 04:19 PM
Edited by kisacik, 05 March 2007 - 04:20 PM.
#7
Posted 05 March 2007 - 04:30 PM
#8
Posted 05 March 2007 - 04:36 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#9
Posted 05 March 2007 - 04:54 PM
airedale,
Thank you for your posts. I have learned a great deal from them. However, I am a little confused by your lack of bearishness. The A/D has been atrocious and has surely given you a sell signal by now. Would'nt that suggest tht we have much lower prices coming into the 20-week cycle low?
Thanks again,
Newcal
newcal, the INDU envelope NYSE breadth system i follow has it's breadth indicator falling below the 0 line so it will not generate a buy signal at the present time and will need to do some work before it can. as posted some time back we are in a broad time window for a Hurst nominal 4.5 yr cycle bottom, 48 to 54 months from the last bottom of march 03. sample avg lengths indicate a late june/early july time frame. at the same time, cyclic trend larger than the 4.5 yr cycle has been very strong, creating (bullish) high right translated cycles including the current 20 wk cycle due in march. mixing this all together suggests to me a trading range market until the 4.5 yr low bottoms. we may be defining the bottom of this expected trading range now. i'm looking for an oversold rally based on the larger cyclic trend. i've also found over the yrs that sudden high amplitude movements against the cyclic trend (caused by non cyclic/fundamental events?) will have a quick snap back rally. as long as no lower cyclic price projections are generated, that rally should occur.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#10
Posted 05 March 2007 - 10:47 PM