"Dear Trader,
I usually write to you about once a month, but this time decided to write sooner than usual, in view of the tremendous activity in the stock market.
Those who participated in my webinars this year, came to our January Camp, or attended my talk at the Traders' Expo in February know that I have become extremely bearish on the stock market since the start of the year.
There has been a broad range of bearish signs, including this severe bearish divergence on the weekly chart of the Dow.
The Dow rallied to its lifetime high, while MACD-H, measuring the power of the bulls, managed only a little pipsqueak of a rally. When the decline did come, it was fast and furious. I believe the yellow dotted line on this chart indicates a reasonable target for the downmove. (11,400DOW)
We may well get what is called 'a dead cat bounce,' but the market is neither nice nor helpful to those who sit on losses. Generally, the first loss is the best loss, and the sooner one cuts his or her losses, the less they hurt.
This chart, updated last Friday, shows that New Lows exceeded New Highs for only four days and by a very slim margin. This is not how serious bottoms are made!"
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62499783271&a=100344124&r=1274.png
Edited by Rogerdodger, 08 March 2007 - 12:55 AM.