12 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

The fact that the NDX and RUT are holding up very well today is a feather in the bulls cap....or else it's just a lack of respect to the decline.

Or....

The A/D line has not provided the kind of bearish divergence that was apparant in 1987 prior to these same 90% down days.

In fact, the NYAD line remains in an strong uptrend at this time.

And that is the main difference between now and then.

Fib

[arbman]

Fib, the breath was misleading, especially RUT --it was last to rally due to its composition in the inflationary issues, I told you several weeks ago at the top, yet that inflationary blow off was cut short because of the macro correction mainly driven by the currency issues rather than simply by the internal dynamics of the market. The breath is going to either follow down or we will see a strong retracement from here. However, the US companies had a fundamental valuation chop because of the currencies, imho. We could see the internal dynamics roll over eventually since the credit growth was already slowing down back then and that was the natural expectation, but the changes in the currency picture shot the market before that. Then, we had the credit crunch accelerated on the way down. This is far from over for the months ahead, imho...

What amazes me is the tech, there seems to be really no serious sellers left out there, it just tracks the market and doesn't appear to lead the declines...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 14 March 2007 - 02:36 PM.

[fib_1618]

What amazes me is the tech, there seems to be really no serious sellers left out there, it just tracks the market and doesn't appear to lead the declines...

Breadth of market is never misleading....only misinterpreted.

Fib