18 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Agree with Islander, each upthrust is on lower volume, momentum is dying, expect spx to keep moving down with FRACMAN"S forecast. The usual April low should show up.

[kemo1k]

Hey Dev, any activity last night on Zen's "flipper"? our $50 M to $100 M mover on the velocity/venture? Thanks

[arbman]

Agree with Islander, each upthrust is on lower volume, momentum is dying, expect spx to keep moving down with FRACMAN"S forecast. The usual April low should show up.

For the past 5 sessions, the indices spent more time going up than down. This is probably the 2.5wk cycle low. The down moves have been very sudden and substantial with steady recoveries. This is not how the downtrends begin, not in the intraday timeframes at least. OTOH, if the resources continue to retreat probably the first reaction of the broad market will be also to the upside, perhaps we are seeing this now.

So, I would use the 6 days of strength ahead of us and short the resources as a hedge and long the indices for now. I really do think that a top is nearby, picking an exact top should depend on a momentum extreme in the daily timeframes. We might get it in a few days, if we get a decline more than a few hours --so far it is not convincing, then I will weight more toward the short side, right now I am also mostly IT bearish, ST neutral, but VST bullish...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 27 March 2007 - 11:37 AM.

[kemo1k]

Hey Dev,

any activity last night on Zen's "flipper"? our $50 M to $100 M mover on the velocity/venture?

Thanks

Sorry guys. At work and I did not see the lower post on this. Lo siento. Always in a hurry.

[PorkLoin]

Russ: The usual April low should show up.

Russ, I read that and thought, "But November through April is supposed to be the seasonally bullish period..." Yet I do remember some prominent April lows - I first thought of 4/4/1994 - so I decided to check it out.


I know some of the years are arguable (like 2000), but I marked the prominent or "meaningful" lows (IMHO) for Aprils in red, and the ones that more clearly were highs or where there wasn't a substantial low in green. Looks to me like less than half the time is there really an "April low."

Yet there've been some very substantial April lows, as in 2001, or in several other years where it was the low for the year. Certainly could be the case this time around. We might be making a pattern like 1996...?

Nice to see "the big picture" sometimes. I thought the rally from last summer was amazing for its persistence and tight channel, but sheesh -- look at 1995.


Best,

Doug

[arbman]

The lower CCI indicators are different Tech:Utility ratios according to the Dow Jones, S&P indices...



This rally either has 2-3 weeks more of trading range (possible new highs) and I kind of favor this because of the breath break out last week, or it is going straight down within a week...

In either case, the lows will be visited or lower lows will be made within 6-8 wks...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 27 March 2007 - 01:45 PM.

[Mr Dev]

- kisa

Your effort's appreciated.
That's some colorful work there Kisa.

[jmicou]

Got a daily sell at market open. No big deal.

[arbman]

Your effort's appreciated.
That's some colorful work there Kisa.

Hey I hope it helps somebody, I used the sector cycles for years and it sure proves me again that trying to profit the short term counter trend move here and not aligning myself with the IT signal was a dangerous game. I am caught with some longs and resource shorts including the oils, ouch! I think the market is headed lower and it seems like it will get going in the earnest while my hedges will not. I will probably pay for this mistake in the morning, shiyt...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 28 March 2007 - 12:39 AM.