16 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Yes, real estate is not like the stock market. I wouldn't trade on this poll's results (or at least not without a lot more help), but I'm just curious about the opinions of our users.

[Chilidawgz]

A severe decline that could throw us into a recession. (which will suppress housing prices for more than 3 years, especially on the coasts and Florida). This mess will take longer than most folks think to play out. Everyone who owns a home on the coasts and people all across the nation who bought the last two years are holding property which is greatly inflated visavis household earnings. The bottom players are priced out of the market (sub prime/lower income/first time buyers) so nobody is going to easily sell their homes and move. The price chain is broken.

[arbman]

Nice summary Chili, but there is always the Fed and lower rates, at least for the 2008 elections. I think it will take years for the incomes to catch up with the prices and the prices will continue to come down to meet at the middle --of course a recession is quite possible, however a last round of buyers will emerge as soon as the Fed lowers, and the Fed will lower, perhaps this summer or later this year, but they will. I think it will be a cyclical bull within a bear trend and some select locations will probably see some new highs with the price appreciations, then, probably everywhere will be heading south again...

Edited by kisacik, 29 March 2007 - 04:32 PM.

[S.I.M.O.N.]

Yes, real estate is not like the stock market. I wouldn't trade on this poll's results (or at least not without a lot more help), but I'm just curious about the opinions of our users.

where's the "civil war in california" choice, i feel left out...

[Rogerdodger]

12,000 foreclosures in Texas in February with a great economy!

Buyers with money/credit are eagerly looking for deals.
If the ARM adjustment causes as much disruption as feared, the good deals may get better but the buyers with money may begin to dwindle, especially if they see a continued dip in price.

So I wonder which will run out first:
Foreclosed houses for sale or buyers with money.

Last week Tulsa had 30 pages of foreclosed houses.
It's back to 35 pages this week.
And that's with the 3rd highest income gain in the nation!

I'm looking but feeling like this ain't the prime time to buy just yet:

Mortgage crisis hits million-dollar homes
Thu Mar 29, 2007 12:21pm ET
By Walden Siew

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sheriff Leo McGuire presides over foreclosure auctions in Bergen County, New Jersey, where the bidding for a home reached $1.2 million last June -- a record for one of the wealthiest counties in the nation.

Homes sold on the auction block for as much as $852,000 this month -- more than quadruple the median home price in the United States. County officials believe they are close to setting another record soon.

In Troy, Michigan, Dorothy Guzek, a credit counselor since 1988, has also seen the changing face of foreclosure.
Her clients, while predominantly poor and minorities, increasingly are neither. Nowadays, homeowners holding professional careers with six-figure salaries regularly drop by her office.

Americans already are facing foreclosure at a record pace, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Lenders started foreclosure actions against more than one in every 200 U.S. mortgage borrowers in the last quarter of 2006.

"To define the problem as a subprime problem is short-sighted," Rosner said. "It's really seeing the tip of the iceberg as the iceberg."

"Everyone's looking at subprime. The rock they aren't looking under are the adjustable rate mortgages"

Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 March 2007 - 06:52 PM.

[greenie]

Still expecting civil war in California in 4-6 years. The poll results convince me of the coming depression even more. Do not mind being in the minority on this board.

[Chilidawgz]

Still expecting civil war in California in 4-6 years.

The poll results convince me of the coming depression even more.

Do not mind being in the minority on this board.

Are referring to the trend of California transitioning to a Latin nation, primarily Mexican/Aztlán nationalism? Espanol is heard everywhere in California now.

Edited by Chilidawgz, 29 March 2007 - 09:25 PM.

[greenie]

Are referring to the trend of California transitioning to a Latin nation, primarily Mexican/Aztlán nationalism? Espanol is heard everywhere in California now.

California is essentially similar to the Balkan states - hundreds of communities with as many religions and cultures are bonded together by only one link - money. When the money is gone, the state is going to fall apart, as simple as that. Thinking about it, much of the apparent prosperity of Calif. is borrowed from home appreciation. The money that people think they have is not even there. Reduced home prices = balkanization of California, simple.

Unlike the oil industry of Texas, IT companies of silicon valley do not need to be in silicon valley. They can move out anywhere. There are many places in the world with identical weather (Santiago, Chile is a great place that I have been to), but 1/5 th house prices as California. There are many places with crappy weather, but as developed IT industry as Calif. (London, Norway, Seattle). I see no connection between California house prices, industry and weather.

So, the price premium that California houses get is an artifact. It is temporary, a passing phase. When the price premium is gone, and then another bit of fall in price happens along with the rest of the country, I do not see how the communities are going to hold together. Too much money will evaporate.

All I can tell you Chili (like I told you last year this time) is to run. It is not too late.

Check this article:

http://www.safehaven...rticle-7237.htm

[zedor]

Still expecting civil war in California in 4-6 years.

The poll results convince me of the coming depression even more.

Do not mind being in the minority on this board.

Agree with you -- however that and the stock market are/or have been divorced for a long time.

Due to PPT and a sea of liquidity stocks have gone up however a time when stocks take account of real-estate will come.


This chart shows the trend is up -- in foreclosures and in Mass.

Edited by zedor, 30 March 2007 - 04:26 AM.

[bobalou]

the only ones that get it bad, are the last flippers..for ABOUT 2yrs...in ct.around N Y CITY,, prices and building still strong.no land .