3 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Mike Burk's stats for next week are positive.

The first 4 trading days of April during the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle have had a very strong positive bias.
During the week prior to Good Friday both indices have been up about 2/3 of the time with positive average returns.

With sentiment so neutral and markets not overbought, it sound right to me.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 March 2007 - 09:57 PM.

[selecto]

President has screwed up everytrhing else, why not the cycle too?

[BigBadBear]

Burke has been wrong about 64% of the time since 2007 incl the last 2 weeks. Sounds like his forecast for next week may have the same bias

[Rogerdodger]

They are only stats.
However for last week, the end of the quarter, I was originally thinking we would see a window dressing rally.
But I looked back 10 years and didn't see much end of March strength so I checked Mike's stats:

SPX Averages:
Day 5 = +0.64%,
Day 4 = -0.03%,
Day 3 = -0.39%,
Day 2 = -0.81%,
Day 1 = -0.47%
5 Day Average= -0.28%
The last 3 years have been worse, averaging -1.85% for the week.

Sure enough the SPX was down over 1% for the week.
But past performance, yadda, yadda, yadda.