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Oh Jeez! This isn't good Norm. (From Fargo)


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 01 April 2007 - 09:40 AM

If Mike Burk's stats included Moon Phases instead of presidents...

It looks like the SPX may be supported this coming week with the seasonal IRA inflows, then fall victim to the waning moon.

("Waning moons are best suited for magic") :blink:

These old charts seem to reconfirm that earlier post: 1st Qtr Moons, can be very dangerous to your portfolio

We find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive; we find it for all major U.S. stock indexes over the last 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years. In contrast, we find no reliable or economically important evidence of lunar cycle effects in return volatility and volume of trading. Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior.

Posted Image
Posted Image
Due to the elliptical shape of the Moon's orbit, the apparent size of the Moon's disk changes as its distance from Earth varies (the closest and farthest points do not always occur at the same phases, however). Second, although the Moon's near side directly faces the Earth on average, we get to view the Moon from slightly different angles as it orbits us. This effect, called libration, is caused partly by the tilt of the Moon's rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane and partly by the fact that the Moon's speed in its orbit varies but its rotation rate does not.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 April 2007 - 10:15 AM.


#2 mdwllc

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Posted 01 April 2007 - 10:26 AM

If Mike Burk's stats included Moon Phases instead of presidents...

It looks like the SPX may be supported this coming week with the seasonal IRA inflows, then fall victim to the waning moon.

("Waning moons are best suited for magic") :blink:

These old charts seem to reconfirm that earlier post: 1st Qtr Moons, can be very dangerous to your portfolio

We find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive; we find it for all major U.S. stock indexes over the last 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years. In contrast, we find no reliable or economically important evidence of lunar cycle effects in return volatility and volume of trading. Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior.

Posted Image
Posted Image
Due to the elliptical shape of the Moon's orbit, the apparent size of the Moon's disk changes as its distance from Earth varies (the closest and farthest points do not always occur at the same phases, however). Second, although the Moon's near side directly faces the Earth on average, we get to view the Moon from slightly different angles as it orbits us. This effect, called libration, is caused partly by the tilt of the Moon's rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane and partly by the fact that the Moon's speed in its orbit varies but its rotation rate does not.





If you're in to it; the second biggest round of meteorological and seismic disturbances this month will come April 14-21 under the year's second "SuperMoon".....MDW :)
Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way...

Be Sure to Perform Your Own Due Diligence

#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 01 April 2007 - 10:45 AM

I don't know anything about that super moon.
But if there is anything to the charts above, a low should be around April 9-10th followed by strength thru the 23rd. (3rd quarter to 1st quarter.)
Moon calendar

In my notes, I see that someonehad called for a bottom in the $HUI around 4/11.

I better get on my sunglasses for this. B)

Edited by Rogerdodger, 01 April 2007 - 11:06 AM.


#4 mdwllc

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Posted 01 April 2007 - 12:15 PM

I don't know anything about that super moon.
But if there is anything to the charts above, a low should be around April 9-10th followed by strength thru the 23rd. (3rd quarter to 1st quarter.)
Moon calendar

In my notes, I see that someonehad called for a bottom in the $HUI around 4/11.

I better get on my sunglasses for this. B)





I trade blind all the time....SuperMoon is defined in Blizzard's post above MDW B)
Lead, Follow or Get Out of the Way...

Be Sure to Perform Your Own Due Diligence

#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 01 April 2007 - 12:17 PM

I see it! :blink: