10 replies to this topic

[Cirrus]

Oil stocks doing well despite a nearly $2 drop in crude. Industrial metals, precious metals and materials are also doing well. I'll post another chart sometime of the DJUSMD, but the LT BO for the DJ US General Mining sector looks like it's following thru. Given the long basing consolidation on the weekly chart I would think it can run for a while. I'm thinking of adding another large cap. I would also not Uranium stocks are doing very well lately as Doug posted days ago. Uranium is nearing $100 and hasn't had a single down weak in over 3 years if I recall. It's not about the US. The global economy is awash in US$'s and FIAT currency and its growing rapidly. It's growing especially rapidly in areas that have large populations. I put up a long post a few weeks ago just how much of a no-brainer this environment is. You have materials and energy stocks trading at low PE's and growing earning briskly. Some of these issue actually have mid single digit PEs. There are many that are loaded with cash on the balance sheet with little or no debt. We also have the sector surrounded by skepticism IMO while it's in a nice uptrend. This is the perfect setup for the continuation of the secular bull run. Many of these stocks are just starting to emerge out of 18 month bases/bull flags on the monthly charts. Can it be this easy?

[NAV]

Can it be this easy?

No, it can't be that easy. OIH should begin a severe downtrend starting in a few days. I will post, if the setup materializes. I am waiting for confirmation.

[denleo]

NAV, why are you bearish on OIH? Denleo

[NAV]

NAV, why are you bearish on OIH?

Denleo

Denleo,

Not anything based on fundamentals. My daily indicators are diverging miserably as we are approaching the 151 resistance, which is not a good sign. My weekly indicators have also started rolling over. Only a weekly close above 151 would be bullish here. Otherwise, i am getting ready to short this sucker (pretty soon).

[PorkLoin]

Tim, agreed, and the above chart is one thing that's been getting increasingly bullish IMO. There has been a pretty good periodicity of lows every 3-4 months, but this bad boy is looking strong right now, just as it "should" be turning down to make the next low. Maybe early March was the market trying and failing to go lower or perhaps we're getting some strong right-translation. And maybe NAV is right and we're gonna go down soon. Anyway, since the low of June 2006 this is a bullish chart to this point.

On uranium, it's been almost four years since the last down week. In 2003 there were declines of $10.20 to $10.10 in March, and $11.00 to $10.90 in June. Minor blips in a year where uranium oxide went from $10.20 to $14.50

Heck, even as we've watched this thing unfold, uranium has tripled in the last year and a half. Early October 2005 to now. Tripled. Good grief, crude oil retraces half its decline and people on the boob tube have the sky falling down around them.

If oil had done the same thing that uranium has since the beginning of 2003, it'd be $298 per barrel. If it'd matched uranium since the beginning of 2001, it'd be $361 per barrel. I'm amazed at the lack of coverage of uranium stocks and the lack of furor in general.

I imagine it will eventually come, and many charts will go parabolic. Sure don't see that yet.


Best,

Doug

[Data]

Yen is falling hard against the dollar and the euro. USD/JPY broke out of its
ascending triangle.

http://www.futuresou...rts.jsp?s=USJYY

[denleo]

NAV, why are you bearish on OIH?

Denleo

Denleo,

Not anything based on fundamentals. My daily indicators are diverging miserably as we are approaching the 151 resistance, which is not a good sign. My weekly indicators have also started rolling over. Only a weekly close above 151 would be bullish here. Otherwise, i am getting ready to short this sucker (pretty soon).

I have no opinion on OIH at this point. I see what you are saying. It will be great if it falls. It would mean crude will fall = good for the stock market. Well actually just about everything is good for the stock market.

Denleo

[TechSkeptic]

Sorry if I am stating the obvious, but there is risk premium built in to the oil sector right now regarding Iran. One of two things will happen - the hostage crisis will escalate into military conflict, in which case oil prices will surge. Or (more likely IMO) it will be alleviated by diplomatic efforts, and the prices will come back down. That's not to say that I think the danger or war will be over. I just think it may be at least temporarily averted, which will bring temporarily relief to commodity prices (which may potentially be a good longer-term buying point). By the way, I agree with Cirrus longer term about the world economy and the trend in commodities.

Edited by TechSkeptic, 03 April 2007 - 01:34 PM.

[Tor]

NAV are you getting anything on the gold stocks? Cheers. They are up but just following the main indices.

[NAV]

NAV are you getting anything on the gold stocks?

Cheers. They are up but just following the main indices.

Tor,

I don't have a good read on the Gold stocks at this juncture.