After the Eco # Employment, premarket traded up strong to SPX future 1459 near to 2/22/07 intra high, 1465 +/- which is progressively confirming "Breakout Retest" of LT price channel scenario which I commented since the Mar 05, 2007 bottom. As noted before, the Breakout Retest scenario is a strong technical price action which is normally projecting new highs, by which we can anticipate SPX 1550 with successful continuation of uptrend momentum above SPX future 1625 and SPX cash 1461.57 intraday high on 2/22/07. For the Feb '07 highs were Qs 45.55, for Nasdaq 2531 +/-, and for DOW 12795 +/-.
The Thursday Holiday trading was positive before the today's Eco number. The price actions traded above the resistances as continuation of the intraday breakout above the resistances which I commented 4/3 intraday breakout. "Qs intra high 44.31 was R3 and SPX traded to 1440.57 making new intraday high which is a good sign. SPX 1440 is 1/25/07 resistance. DOW intra high, 12534.27 is Feb '07 low, but closing above 50ma and making higher high of Mar '07 is progressively positive. NASDAQ didn't trade above Mar '07 high; but, it is trading above 50ma resistance." and a follow-through on 4/4-4/5 price actions above the intraday resistance which I noted as "Progressively Confirming Breakout Retest" Scenario. Therefore, as noted, we now can anticipate SPX 1460 +/- as the next target and SPX 1550 with successful consolidation and a breakout above the Feb '07 high to SPX 1550 +/-. I will be reassessing market strength along the way to SPX 1460 +/- and then to SPX 1550 +/-.
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=68651
The aforementioned "Breakout Retest" Scenario is consistent view since I called 3/5/07 bottom after I sensed that market was signaling it.
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http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
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http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
Review of Market Sentiment: The recent market sentiment was extremely negative when we experienced the 2/27/07 sell-off. The sell-off was due to a long anticipated 2% sell-off and a correction which we had not seen since Jun-Jul 2006 sell-off. The characteristics of the sell-off which I commented are "Climactic Sell-off" with high volumes and negative sentiment. This scenario is similar as Jun 2006 sell-off which I also noted as "Climactic Sell-off". However, there are different market psychology which I will not repeatedly spell out what those are even though I noted those on my previous comments except that the fundamental psychology of the two sell-off scenarios was similar. To summarize the market sentiment, for many market participants, it is evolving from extreme negative sentiment to negative, perplexed uncertainty for market direction. Having said that, lately, I am seeing a change in market sentiment.
Edited by Trend-Signals, 06 April 2007 - 08:52 AM.