11 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

Happy Good Friday Holiday... ALL


After the Eco # Employment, premarket traded up strong to SPX future 1459 near to 2/22/07 intra high, 1465 +/- which is progressively confirming "Breakout Retest" of LT price channel scenario which I commented since the Mar 05, 2007 bottom. As noted before, the Breakout Retest scenario is a strong technical price action which is normally projecting new highs, by which we can anticipate SPX 1550 with successful continuation of uptrend momentum above SPX future 1625 and SPX cash 1461.57 intraday high on 2/22/07. For the Feb '07 highs were Qs 45.55, for Nasdaq 2531 +/-, and for DOW 12795 +/-.

The Thursday Holiday trading was positive before the today's Eco number. The price actions traded above the resistances as continuation of the intraday breakout above the resistances which I commented 4/3 intraday breakout. "Qs intra high 44.31 was R3 and SPX traded to 1440.57 making new intraday high which is a good sign. SPX 1440 is 1/25/07 resistance. DOW intra high, 12534.27 is Feb '07 low, but closing above 50ma and making higher high of Mar '07 is progressively positive. NASDAQ didn't trade above Mar '07 high; but, it is trading above 50ma resistance." and a follow-through on 4/4-4/5 price actions above the intraday resistance which I noted as "Progressively Confirming Breakout Retest" Scenario. Therefore, as noted, we now can anticipate SPX 1460 +/- as the next target and SPX 1550 with successful consolidation and a breakout above the Feb '07 high to SPX 1550 +/-. I will be reassessing market strength along the way to SPX 1460 +/- and then to SPX 1550 +/-.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=68651

The aforementioned "Breakout Retest" Scenario is consistent view since I called 3/5/07 bottom after I sensed that market was signaling it.


http://www.stockchar...09398&r=598.png

http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png

http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22648394504&a=76929034&r=579.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p63151936612&a=76929550&r=145.png

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png



Review of Market Sentiment: The recent market sentiment was extremely negative when we experienced the 2/27/07 sell-off. The sell-off was due to a long anticipated 2% sell-off and a correction which we had not seen since Jun-Jul 2006 sell-off. The characteristics of the sell-off which I commented are "Climactic Sell-off" with high volumes and negative sentiment. This scenario is similar as Jun 2006 sell-off which I also noted as "Climactic Sell-off". However, there are different market psychology which I will not repeatedly spell out what those are even though I noted those on my previous comments except that the fundamental psychology of the two sell-off scenarios was similar. To summarize the market sentiment, for many market participants, it is evolving from extreme negative sentiment to negative, perplexed uncertainty for market direction. Having said that, lately, I am seeing a change in market sentiment.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 06 April 2007 - 08:52 AM.

[Trend-Signals]

Correction on SPX future Feb 07 high: 1465

[traderpaul]

Not a volume expert.....but the indexes are making muti-months high on fumes....

[jmicou]

TS,

Starting to see and hear that upside area as a target. Two charts you might find of interest:

http://forums.techni...8&id=325345.png
http://forums.techni...8&id=325344.png

[Trend-Signals]

Not a volume expert.....but the indexes are making muti-months high on fumes....

Hi Paul,

Yes, the volumes during the holiday week were low. In addition, the pre Easter week was biased to be up, statistically. Therefore, we need to see healthy consolidation during the next week. Then, we will see the OE week volatility.

As noted before, I am not as bullish as I was during Jun-Jul 2006 bottom; however, I am seeing similar condition as the mid year, technically and psychologically. Having said that, I am being cautious as I commented on my posts during the last several weeks with "Breakout Retest" Scenario. As noted, market price actions are confirming the view.

Happy holiday.


~~~

Nasdaq A/D is turning up showing continued strength, 10dma is pointing up after the recent break-out from the negative divergence which I noted during Jan-Feb 2007. The secondary improving internals is a sign which I noted yesterday that we need to see improving internals after the 7 day-consolidation period following 3/27 rally. The only caveat is that market traded in light volumes due to the holiday trading, so I would like to see healthy consolidation during the next week.

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAADV:$NADEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p52368892903&a=92928744&r=330.png

TS,

Starting to see and hear that upside area as a target. Two charts you might find of interest: Charts.

Hi JM

Thank you for the link, however, it needs to sign on to the site.

Could you post the charts, if you would like to or please send me an email about the chart?

Have a nice Holiday.

[J.Bilkins]

Awesome charts! Thanks. Health care is sure looking good or at least JNJ, MAGN and possibly MRK if it breaks out here... here are my health care charts... Maybe the defensive stock gaming lines up well with a retrace in the market with these setups....all dips are buying opps imo. Hopefully a big retrace is coming to load the boat yet again.. Happy Easter everyone!

[Russ]

Hi TS, I agree with your argument that the spx and dow look like they are testing their multi-year break-out. Fits in with da_cheif's view too. The odd man out here is the Nasdaq which looks more like it wants to go down to the bottom of its multi-year channel.

[Trend-Signals]

TS,

Starting to see and hear that upside area as a target. Two charts you might find of interest: Charts

Hi JM,

In reply to your email, I have sent you my monthly SPX chart this morning around 5 AM.

The monthly chart which I sent you is the same layout which I posted during the Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call with SPX 1550 target retesting the Mar 2000 high. I posted the chart with my comment on my web.

[qoute] SPX long term TL supports with the highest volume at the support as shown on the monthly chart with circled highlighted volume is technically meaningful sign. This shows that market participants were aggressively supporting the critical support at breakout level which I commented "Breakout Retest" scenario from the LT TL.

Also, as commented on the climactic volume actions during 2/27-3/5, we now can see that the high volume actions were meaningful and "climactic" as we now see that price actions were heading higher. Will comment on it more later.[/qoute]


Have a nice weekend and ENJOY

[Trend-Signals]

Hi TS,

I agree with your argument that the spx and dow look like they are testing their multi-year break-out. Fits in with da_cheif's view too.

The odd man out here is the Nasdaq which looks more like it wants to go down to the bottom of its multi-year channel.

Hi Russ,

The discussion which we had before on Armstrong, I haven't forgotten about it. I may post my thought on my website since that could be considered as off-topic. To give due-consideration for others, I will redirect the topic to my website which I am planning to briefly post my thought later when I find a chance.

I haven't posted my comments on this site frequently, but I posted many on other as many of you know since I have thousands of visitors on my website which are shown by ISP numbers on my web summary.

Not sure what da_cheif's saying since I didn't see what he was saying. However, what I can say is my visit to his web or whatever will not show unless I happened to come across a few on public posts. This can be verified visited ISP numbers.

As for NASDAQ performance, I have commented this before during the last year. NASDAQ performance was weaker than other major markets; however, it is outperformned since Oct 2002 bottom. Having said that, Nasdaq, especially $SOX, underperformed DOW/SPX lately. Therefore, we can say that the recent healthy market performance is not confirmed by Nasdaq/$SOX performance. However, we know that we are not in early stage of economic cycle; therefore, not all boats are rising at this time. It is stock pickers market. As for general market performance, I am being careful.

Market tape is what really matters; otherwise, one could be wrong on the market for a long time.

Have a good weekend

[Russ]

da cheif, Don Wolanchuk has stated many times on this board that the market is entering the 'epicenter of primary wave 3' and he is looking for 20K on the Dow in coming years. I have an oscillator that is pointing to a major high in 2020. I am not sure if cheif has given a time for his 20K prediction.

Russ

Hi TS,

I agree with your argument that the spx and dow look like they are testing their multi-year break-out. Fits in with da_cheif's view too.

The odd man out here is the Nasdaq which looks more like it wants to go down to the bottom of its multi-year channel.

Hi Russ,

The discussion which we had before on Armstrong, I haven't forgotten about it. I may post my thought on my website since that could be considered as off-topic. To give due-consideration for others, I will redirect the topic to my website which I am planning to briefly post my thought later when I find a chance.

I haven't posted my comments on this site frequently, but I posted many on other as many of you know since I have thousands of visitors on my website which are shown by ISP numbers on my web summary.

Not sure what da_cheif's saying since I didn't see what he was saying. However, what I can say is my visit to his web or whatever will not show unless I happened to come across a few on public posts. This can be verified visited ISP numbers.

As for NASDAQ performance, I have commented this before during the last year. NASDAQ performance was weaker than other major markets; however, it is outperformned since Oct 2002 bottom. Having said that, Nasdaq, especially $SOX, underperformed DOW/SPX lately. Therefore, we can say that the recent healthy market performance is not confirmed by Nasdaq/$SOX performance. However, we know that we are not in early stage of economic cycle; therefore, not all boats are rising at this time. It is stock pickers market. As for general market performance, I am being careful.

Market tape is what really matters; otherwise, one could be wrong on the market for a long time.

Have a good weekend