6 replies to this topic

[muppet]

Hey Rodger,

Awhile back you posted that author, Alexander Elder said that "bottoms are not made this way." Or similiar words to imply that we just had NOT seen the bottom. This man has written several best selling books about trading and the markets and it's just interesting to hear him be so "SURE" about something ... and then have the market go on it's merry way.

Now, truth be told, we've NOT made new highs yet ... so he may still be correct. Will be watching to see. If he's not right .... all I can say is that all that experience doesn't seem to matter one iota. Wonder if all his money is made from books and talks rather than market trading.

Good luck to everyone,

M

When times get rough ... stop fighting ... ROLL OVER AND FLOAT.

Edited by muppet, 06 April 2007 - 11:15 AM.

[arbman]

In 2005, the market made new highs first to make the new lows next, so this is a tactical game, being bullish or bearish all the time is as useless as the gov't numbers...

[n83]

In 2005, the market made new highs first to make the new lows next, so this is a tactical game, being bullish or bearish all the time is as useless as the gov't numbers...

it is not the news nor the numbers..it is the reaction to it

for now up..agree close of monday maybe different maybe not but more important than the open

[Russ]

Original post with dynamic chart link showing current status:
Part of Dr. Elders latest e-mail (March 5, 2007):

"Dear Trader,
I usually write to you about once a month, but this time decided to write sooner than usual, in view of the tremendous activity in the stock market.
Those who participated in my webinars this year, came to our January Camp, or attended my talk at the Traders' Expo in February know that I have become extremely bearish on the stock market since the start of the year.
There has been a broad range of bearish signs, including this severe bearish divergence on the weekly chart of the Dow.
The Dow rallied to its lifetime high, while MACD-H, measuring the power of the bulls, managed only a little pipsqueak of a rally. When the decline did come, it was fast and furious. I believe the yellow dotted line on this chart indicates a reasonable target for the downmove. (11,400DOW)

We may well get what is called 'a dead cat bounce,' but the market is neither nice nor helpful to those who sit on losses. Generally, the first loss is the best loss, and the sooner one cuts his or her losses, the less they hurt.

This chart, updated last Friday, shows that New Lows exceeded New Highs for only four days and by a very slim margin. This is not how serious bottoms are made!"

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62499783271&a=100344124&r=1274.png

[kamakazeman]

Now, truth be told, we've NOT made new highs yet ... so he may still be correct. Will be watching to see. If he's not right ....
****
all I can say is that all that experience doesn't seem to matter one iota. Wonder if all his money is made from books and talks rather than market trading.

THAT is the valuable point. ya gotta have a point of view to attract like minded customers,.
Besides, he said it's not a "serious" bottom. Am delighted to agree with this comment.
He's right.
The "serious "bottom could to be this summer, and then,
He's right , AGAIN!
Sales should go WAAAY up!
and if not, well, there's a serious bottom in our future, somewhere..........

[Rogerdodger]

Here's my theory:
We try to predict.
We base this on past experience and patterns which re-appear.
We can predict summer and winter, full moons and eclipses, high tide and low tide.
But much is unpredictable and can't be measured by the norm or even predicted.

For example, last year the experts predicted an unusually high number of hurricanes would hit the US.
Not one did!
And while we can accurately predict high tide, we can't predict rogue waves.
Rogue waves used to be viewed as myth but now satellites prove these waves are not only a fact but widespread and responsible for the sinking of many hugh ships.

Was Feb's sell-off just a rogue wave?
If so, then previous measures of the norm would not provide a useful comparison.
So Dr Elder might have more accurately said: "NORMALLY, this is not how serious bottoms are made."

Severe weather has sunk more than 200 supertankers and container ships exceeding 200 metres in length during the last two decades. Rogue waves are believed to be the major cause in many such cases. Mariners who survived similar encounters have had remarkable stories to tell. In February 1995 the cruiser liner Queen Elizabeth II met a 29-metre high rogue wave during a hurricane in the North Atlantic that Captain Ronald Warwick described as "a great wall of water… it looked as if we were going into the White Cliffs of Dover."

And within the week between February and March 2001 two hardened tourist cruisers – the Bremen and the Caledonian Star – had their bridge windows smashed by 30-metre rogue waves in the South Atlantic, the former ship left drifting without navigation or propulsion for a period of two hours.


"The same phenomenon could have sunk many less lucky vessels: two large ships sink every week on average, but the cause is never studied to the same detail as an air crash. It simply gets put down to 'bad weather'."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 06 April 2007 - 08:01 PM.

[TrillionDollarMan]

He's gotta start takin' his own advice and "not talk ur buk". Oh, well. I remember at the COMMENCEMENT Ceremony when I graduated from CNBC University, then acting-President Tyler Metheson told us, "CLASS, go out there and get 'em! And just remember...if ur gonna make predictions...MAKE ALOT OF 'EM!" TDM