23 replies to this topic

[J.Bilkins]

3.1 put/call ratio is not bearish. It may not be bullish either. It probably leads to a flat market which wipes out EVERYONE as everyone justs starts selling options 10% out of the money from month to month and rolling things out every month... Seems the most likely case with the current scenario. HIGHLY doubtful that any mini crash doesn't get rocketed a short time later and everyone loses their "paper profits"...imo... Doesn't a flat market at least seem a good way to clear out the massive gambling? Imagine us going flat in a small range for a year straight...not now but sometime soon etc.....time value would just erode on everyone. The call sellers is the smart money because it takes tons of capital..

[J.Bilkins]

I posted this "sell" on Sat., Feb 24.

Crud. Selecto wins!

Great job!

I personally like trend signals the best for the overall strategy....you can learn a ton from her work, strategies and overall process with the market. I have seen gazillions of strategies over the years....bar none, these are the strategies that always win in the end...

[bigtrader]

Late Feb. was a crash? OMG the world has come to an end.

[gorydog]

I know several people who made fortunes in the market buying all-in on a single stock, un-hyped, thinly followed, but with a big plan, and holding for years until it hit. It's rare for small trader to make and keep a fortune trading options. Against a crash, all sorts of bad news has been hitting the market, but it goes up anyway. What bad news coming in over the next week will be recieved differently? There is a chance today will be down, but a crash doesn't seem imminent. Classic "wall of worry" creep higher more likely. GD

[securelstmile]

j bilkins, This is a great line. Fact of the matter is that trading is a lonely game and people want to be accepted and liked as if high school was going on sometimes. This includes myself and it is a large weakness...as is my big mouth many times.. I tend to think that when you post your trades it sometimes takes away from your ability to be flexible, you need to be able to change your mind on a dime in the markets and that is tough to do if you put it all out there. I think that you just need to remember who you are doing this for, yourself, and that can make it lonely sometimes but that is a part of the game. And Gorydog, yes, I have done my best trades on stocks long forgotten selling when there is interest.

[da_cheif]

I think things are looking pretty stretched too as you probably noticed.

I am well aware of da cheif's view but people should remember he was telling people to 'watch the sky' just before Feb.26, this can only mean that his CLX has trouble spotting tops. We are about to find out.

Russ, I think we are pretty much done with this leg and will be trading lower.

the difference tween u n me is that while watching the sky i took advantage of the bull market hiccup by addling to my long position taken at 1095 ...at 1383....at the same time u were yapping about 1929.....here we are....once again....the nyse at historic hi.s.........now if you dont think i made a bundle on the feb march decline shorting the es.....then ur obviously not checking my blog as many of the posters on this board do..........btw if you are basing part of ur analysis on what da cheif does or doesnt do ur wasting ur time........ ....btw if you check the watch the sky post it was related to kirks message.......how many bears have bagged out of this forum since the 2002 lows because the werent "watching the sky"....lmao

[KCScott]

I was looking at the old posts here from right before the 2/27 Crash day and the guy who predicted it perfectly here was named xDCox.

In all fairness, XD has been calling for a terminal crash since October - I know beacuse I found his blog and started following him back then - went almost 100% cash with a few shorts.

That's also how I found this board - and that in itself was worth the profits I missed in Q4 - Early Feb

XD made some great calls on a few that crash and burned (AMD comes to mind) - but the big dump never materialized.

XD is a great guy and a great trader, but I'm almost afraid he's in Perma Bear mode.

I think it was Livermore that said there is no bull side or bear side - Only the right side.
I'm trying to find that right now.

[selecto]

FWIW this board voted 69.57% "Higher" for that week - we were down 64.52. Mybe Dudette can pound out some code that only lets people who are "experts" vote.

[Russ]

I never said it was 1929, I said based on Martin Armstrong's pi cycle (which came on schedule on Feb.27 when the dow fell over 500 points in one day) this type of panic cycle should produce between a 10-20% correction. After that I would be happy to be bullish. If we only get a 5% correction then history would be made as the average is the 10-20%.

I am not kicking you hard here, I have great admiration for your clx work, it obviously worked very well after March 5th.

As for you making a bundle on the feb/mar decline, you told Mark Young on this board that, yes you got whacked on the mini-crash. You argued with me about TOL on this board that my bearish analysis was all wrong, that those things weren't important etc.

Just last night you posted something about the 10 day trin and you were still bullish, clx offsets were pointing at the sky again. Well guess who is short todayand making money. Who's laughing now? Slamma Jamma - 2.

the difference tween u n me is that while watching the sky i took advantage of the bull market hiccup by addling to my long position taken at 1095 ...at 1383....at the same time u were yapping about 1929.....here we are....once again....the nyse at historic hi.s.........now if you dont think i made a bundle on the feb march decline shorting the es.....then ur obviously not checking my blog as many of the posters on this board do..........btw if you are basing part of ur analysis on what da cheif does or doesnt do ur wasting ur time........ ....btw if you check the watch the sky post it was related to kirks message.......how many bears have bagged out of this forum since the 2002 lows because the werent "watching the sky"....lmao

[da_cheif]

if you wanna know where im short from....u can check my service......slamaa this.....snort

or if ur gonna read my posts....readem all..

http://www.traders-t...?...c=68680&hl=

Edited by da_cheif, 11 April 2007 - 10:10 AM.