11 replies to this topic

[Cirrus]

Reply to question and respond to thread with a 1, 2 or 3. It will at least be interesting to see the psychology of some outstanding traders here with regard to crude oil production. We'll use trailing EIA data of world crude oil production in MBpD. I'll start by saying: 1--we may be there now.

Edited by Cirrus, 11 April 2007 - 12:02 PM.

[S.I.M.O.N.]

Reply to question and respond to thread with a 1, 2 or 3. It will at least be interesting to see the psychology of some outstanding traders here with regard to crude oil production. We'll use trailing EIA data of world crude oil production in MBpD.

I'll start by saying:

1--we may be there now.

no offence, but how does being an "outstanding trader" make one an expert on crude oil production?

[Cirrus]

No offense taken.....it's about the perception of the petro stock group by traders. This event is perhaps one of the most important events of the past 50 years if you really sit back and think about it. It will impact much more than trading. If peak oil is true, anyone with half a brain would realize this. Many here don't know much about crude oil production but are great traders so your statement is correct. I'm basically looking at gauging the psychology of those traders toward world crude production--no matter how much they know about the subject.

[arbman]

If the world reserves of 100-120 yrs is true, the production can still accelerate a bit further, imho. There should be a sustained increase for the next 30 yrs or so at least with the reserves becoming harder to extract in about 50-60 yrs or the end of the steady production. The prices should sky rocket beyond 2040-2045 and make the oil completely unfeasable for the mass consumption over the following 10-15 yrs or so. I think the remaining 30 yrs of reserves beyond 2060-2070 will be rather replaced by the alternative energy methods and won't be quite extracted for the general consumption, nucular anyone?!?

[PorkLoin]

I vote 2 -- I think production will continue to increase a little for some years. I expect demand to increase faster so rising prices are gonna have to keep a lid on it. Doug

[fib_1618]

It would occur to me that you can't have "peak" crude production without the refineries to keep up with this same "peak" production. To wit - it's actually been the lack of refineries that have driven prices higher as it relates to the demand factor - this and sectarian environmentalists and the laws that have resulted from their extremism that continue to disallow any further exploration and alternate fuel sources for the betterment of the species. Aside from this, many do under estimate the vast resources of this planet. So put me in category 3....much ado about nothing in the greater scheme of things (but it makes good political diatribe). Fib

[NAV]

Voted for 3. And i have read all that the OIL bugs have to say and not convinced of it.

Edited by NAV, 11 April 2007 - 02:09 PM.

[johngeorge]

#2 All I can say on the subject was said by Doug (PorkLoin).

I think production will continue to increase a little for some years. I expect demand to increase faster so rising prices are gonna have to keep a lid on it.

[mdwllc]

Reply to question and respond to thread with a 1, 2 or 3. It will at least be interesting to see the psychology of some outstanding traders here with regard to crude oil production. We'll use trailing EIA data of world crude oil production in MBpD.

I'll start by saying:

1--we may be there now.

I can't tell you what's underground and below the sea; but the petroleum area i is one of the major thrusts that I am concentrating on now in in the future. From a cycle point of view, I believe we crude is currently bottoming and will go higher the rest of the year. It should set new all-time highs by 2008. When will it bottom --when the monthly close back above $62/bl. My current projections are for $ 95.60 +/- 6.45/bl in the next 18 month cycle. What will negate my projections: $ 52/bl. MDW

[arbman]

MDW, I actually think the economy will slow down and the oil bottom will happen later, like Q1 '08. I think this is near the top...