11 replies to this topic

[cedartree]

Saudi production is down the last two years. If rumors are true about Saudi oil having peaked, then I think that the world is very near a peak. But maybe the Saudis are just managing their remaining resources, realizing that they can sell less and get more for it. I think that there will be more nationalisation(countries wishing to hold more of it back for their own security and increased political power) of oil supplies and that may crimp the supply.

[mdwllc]

MDW, I actually think the economy will slow down and the oil bottom will happen later, like Q1 '08. I think this is near the top...

Kisa: I wouldn't disagree with the economy slowing scenario. I listed my 25% portfolio repositioning in the Swing Waves forum a couple of week's ago. For energy, I am positioning 10-15% of our holdings in both carbon based and non-carbon based equities. Two upcoming time periods are significant that I'll be watching. The first is 26 Apr to 12 May. My cycle hypothesis is that this is when the next uptrend should begin. The other is 7 Aug to 28 Sep. Middle East tensions will be at a high and petroleum prices will become unstable. Hence, I'm positioning now....MDW