25 replies to this topic

[QID_trader]

Today's rally mades me nervous about my puts, but the volume was low today and looks like a head-fake by the floor traders to clear out the stops. They made me sweat, but tomorrow PPI comes out and that number is going to be HOT meaning bigtime inflation. Bulls are celebrating tonight but will be crying tomorrow. Fractal F8 suggest gap down and plunge for Friday (Hankster can explain this further). I had to put off shopping for the Bimmer today but will go shoppin on Saturday if tomorrow brings what I expect.

[Darris]

So how much did the crash puts lose today? Thanks

[Tor]

looks like the bears are willing this market down, but it doesnt feel like it wants to go down. Will see.

[QID_trader]

So how much did the crash puts lose today? Thanks

Options aren't marked to market so I don't lose until either I sell or they expire. I still think crash tomorrow with nasty stagflation PPI. BUT if the floor traders manage to levitate this pig until expiration day I will double down with May puts. There is no way that they can hold this pig up forever against the force of gravity. Fundamentals are too negative for that and market is soooo overdue for a 10% correction that it's not even funny. Complacent bulls are smug now but soon will be in slaughterhouse. F8 Fractal can't be denied only postponed.

[.Blizzard]

Fractal is still valid if tomorrow or Monday the Dow will test again today's low A breakout of 12600 index will invalidate that fractal the 4/16 time frame target could be extended to April 19/20 As I posted below, today's OEX options activity wasn't bearish

Edited by .Blizzard, 12 April 2007 - 04:29 PM.

[Darris]

The boyz are positioned for some additional upside for OPEX. Ever heard of WWW (Weird Wollie Wed)? We had a low on Wed and a new low this morning. That low should be a rock solid stop for the next 3 trading days. However, the 1475 range on the ES futures may come first. Just guessing.

[skyymaster]

So how much did the crash puts lose today? Thanks

Options aren't marked to market so I don't lose until either I sell or they expire. I still think crash tomorrow with nasty stagflation PPI. BUT if the floor traders manage to levitate this pig until expiration day I will double down with May puts. There is no way that they can hold this pig up forever against the force of gravity. Fundamentals are too negative for that and market is soooo overdue for a 10% correction that it's not even funny. Complacent bulls are smug now but soon will be in slaughterhouse. F8 Fractal can't be denied only postponed.

I wish you the nest but you may really want to analyzing that conviction of yours. Market can and will bankrupt you. It does not need to go up. It can stay here and kill time for your options to even recover. Just saying don't "put" put all eggs in one basket as the saying goes.

[SandStorm]

Today's rally mades me nervous about my puts, but the volume was low today and looks like a head-fake by the floor traders to clear out the stops.

They made me sweat, but tomorrow PPI comes out and that number is going to be HOT meaning bigtime inflation. Bulls are celebrating tonight but will be crying tomorrow. Fractal F8 suggest gap down and plunge for Friday (Hankster can explain this further).

I had to put off shopping for the Bimmer today but will go shoppin on Saturday if tomorrow brings what I expect.

You forgot -- tomorrow is Friday the 13th!!

Go for it. I wish you luck.

[gorydog]

Today's rally mades me nervous about my puts, but the volume was low today and looks like a head-fake by the floor traders to clear out the stops.

They made me sweat, but tomorrow PPI comes out and that number is going to be HOT meaning bigtime inflation. Bulls are celebrating tonight but will be crying tomorrow. Fractal F8 suggest gap down and plunge for Friday (Hankster can explain this further).

I had to put off shopping for the Bimmer today but will go shoppin on Saturday if tomorrow brings what I expect.

Don't forget the PE ratio is still cheap. This is not an overvalued market. That doesn't mean it won't drop, but it's not like it is a bubble.
GD

[OEXCHAOS]

Say, what's the trend? How's breadth? P/C ratios? Other Sentiment? Chart pattern? Ewave? What's the REALITY, vs. the hope? I see no technical reason to be net short in size. A small gamble? Sure. Just in case. Especially with that funky high OEX P/C, but otherwise? The odds on play was to sell those puts yesterday or this morning. In fact, shorting them made some sense, even though you might have wanted to buy a hedge below. Mark