25 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Fractal is still valid if tomorrow or Monday the Dow will test again today's low

A breakout of 12600 index will invalidate that fractal

the 4/16 time frame target could be extended to April 19/20

As I posted below, today's OEX options activity wasn't bearish

April 20th is a focus date for me.

Very interesting that you also see something there.

good luck

[QID_trader]

Say, what's the trend?

How's breadth?

P/C ratios?

Other Sentiment?

Chart pattern?

Ewave?

What's the REALITY, vs. the hope?

I see no technical reason to be net short in size. A small gamble? Sure. Just in case. Especially with that funky high OEX P/C, but otherwise?

The odds on play was to sell those puts yesterday or this morning. In fact, shorting them made some sense, even though you might have wanted to buy a hedge below.

Mark

Mr. CHOAS

I do not not dabble in all those arcane TA hocus pocus. If I did my head would be spinning around and I could never even figure out to go long or short half the times

My trade is based on horribly deteriorating fundamentals:

Subprimes Imploding
Skyrocketing Oil/Gas Prices
Iran/Iraq/Terrorism
Bloated Federal Debt
Weak Dollar
Unpopular President
Overvalued Stocks
Complacent Bulls
Hawkish Fed
Earnings Collapsing
Rampant Speculation (Margin Debt, Leveraged Buyouts)
China Bubble

Aside form horrible fundamentals. The Fractal F8 is as close to a gaurantee that I can find that the Crash should begin now. It is a perfect match and Fractals are extremely accurate becuase they are base on the immutable laws of nature. Also, smart bears like xD&Cox that called the 2/27 Crash Day perfectly are confidently predicting the same here. I will happily go on the same side as them.

-Greg

Fractal is still valid if tomorrow or Monday the Dow will test again today's low

A breakout of 12600 index will invalidate that fractal

the 4/16 time frame target could be extended to April 19/20

As I posted below, today's OEX options activity wasn't bearish

April 20th is a focus date for me.

Very interesting that you also see something there.

good luck

Hello Mr. Dev,

What do you see that makes 4/20 a focus date for you? Are you expecting the market to hold up until then or crash into that date. I see so many others all looking for a major turn 4/20 and I am a little worried about my puts in case that it will stay up until then although I dont think that will happen. If it does though I will double down for May puts since if 4/20 isn't a crash low it will be the high to be followed by a crash into May.

Can you share what you focus date is saying?

Thanks,
-Greg

[caspary]

Say, what's the trend?

How's breadth?

P/C ratios?

Other Sentiment?

Chart pattern?

Ewave?

What's the REALITY, vs. the hope?

I see no technical reason to be net short in size. A small gamble? Sure. Just in case. Especially with that funky high OEX P/C, but otherwise?

The odds on play was to sell those puts yesterday or this morning. In fact, shorting them made some sense, even though you might have wanted to buy a hedge below.

Mark

Mr. CHOAS

I do not not dabble in all those arcane TA hocus pocus. If I did my head would be spinning around and I could never even figure out to go long or short half the times

My trade is based on horribly deteriorating fundamentals:

Subprimes Imploding
Skyrocketing Oil/Gas Prices
Iran/Iraq/Terrorism
Bloated Federal Debt
Weak Dollar
Unpopular President
Overvalued Stocks
Complacent Bulls
Hawkish Fed
Earnings Collapsing
Rampant Speculation (Margin Debt, Leveraged Buyouts)
China Bubble

Aside form horrible fundamentals. The Fractal F8 is as close to a gaurantee that I can find that the Crash should begin now. It is a perfect match and Fractals are extremely accurate becuase they are base on the immutable laws of nature. Also, smart bears like xD&Cox that called the 2/27 Crash Day perfectly are confidently predicting the same here. I will happily go on the same side as them.

-Greg

Apart from Hawkish Fed and China bubble, all the others have been media-ed about for last 3-4yrs. I agree with you, but I keep being surprised at how the bull market just keeps going. This is what made me become a trend follower. My analysis is so basic, remember I used to say "even a caveman..." just before I was moderated? People got bored of me, about last October I think, and they kept shorting. Anyway, that's another story.

[LeroyB3]

There is no way you are serious. Your "homerun" trade is based off of fundamentals that everyone already knows about and a technical indicator that seems to be worse then flipping a coin. Wow. Best of luck I guess. LB

[Mr Dev]

QID, Well if I may add I also went from holding a fully Long position on 2/26 to a fully short at the close. So I think there were more than a few traders here, positioned correctly short, to make equal to the 13 or so weeks of gains that were acquired for the dow in just one day, pretty much same for the NDX. Now an Update, I was also short for yesterdays down move,....but I flipped to a 50% long today, and will add 50% on a lower open. If by the close my long signal turn off,. then I will flip from 100% long to 50% short term short at the the close. Right or wrong, there are short term signals that are pointing up as they often will do on a THurs into a Friday and thus into a weekend. Now if next week and maybe the week after we just drift sideways, I would say we would be set up again, for a retest of a least 50% of these short term gains. If we climb higher well there's no telling how high as many things could break up at the same time. Just keep your plan in mind but stay flexible in your trading time frame,...or you may give back more than you wish. Greg, A big fund move may screw with things a bit.

[QID_trader]

Thank you for share your work Dev. You sound like a very experience trader. I am impressed that you also were short for 2/27 Crash. That was such an exciting day. I was so happy to see the Dow dropping out of control like an Anvil out a 20 story window. I cannot wait for the follow up soon which should be even more fantastic than the original. I am making a list of all the smart traders that predicted the 2/27 Crash and were short so that I can follow the future calls of these experts since I am still a novice and would like to learn from the masters. I am adding you to my list Dev. Thanks -Greg

[arbman]

Subprimes Imploding Skyrocketing Oil/Gas Prices Iran/Iraq/Terrorism Bloated Federal Debt Weak Dollar Unpopular President Overvalued Stocks Complacent Bulls Hawkish Fed Earnings Collapsing Rampant Speculation (Margin Debt, Leveraged Buyouts) China Bubble

Greg, do not get wiped out, do not loose money, you are gambling, everything you know through the media are known to the operators about 2-3 months prior they hit the wires. So, let me repeat, you are gambling. What matters is the liquidity and it is still quite high, the ship does not turn overnight, even titanic took several hours to sink. What matters is the support and resistance and they are still holding, what matters is the participation and there is still broad participation. A pull back after today? Yes, even the retest of the support, yes, a crash? Not a chance, the chashes occur from the oversold levels, not from the top. You really need to improve your technical skills and backtest what you think is occuring. The history almost always rhymes, this is clearly not an exceptional time either. The history of the money, the bubbles, even simple sector rotations are much older than you are and what so far you have witnessed, it is all games and deception, turn off your TV...

- kisa

[QID_trader]

Subprimes Imploding Skyrocketing Oil/Gas Prices Iran/Iraq/Terrorism Bloated Federal Debt Weak Dollar Unpopular President Overvalued Stocks Complacent Bulls Hawkish Fed Earnings Collapsing Rampant Speculation (Margin Debt, Leveraged Buyouts) China Bubble

Greg, do not get wiped out, do not loose money, you are gambling, everything you know through the media are known to the operators about 2-3 months prior they hit the wires. So, let me repeat, you are gambling. What matters is the liquidity and it is still quite high, the ship does not turn overnight, even titanic took several hours to sink. What matters is the support and resistance and they are still holding, what matters is the participation and there is still broad participation. A pull back after today? Yes, even the retest of the support, yes, a crash? Not a chance, the chashes occur from the oversold levels, not from the top. You really need to improve your technical skills and backtest what you think is occuring. The history almost always rhymes, this is clearly not an exceptional time either. The history of the money, the bubbles, even simple sector rotations are much older than you are and what so far you have witnessed, it is all games and deception, turn off your TV...

- kisa

lisa,

Thanks for your inputs. I would like to ask you if were you short on 2/27 for that Crash? You said that Crash one comes from oversold conditions, but 2/26 was not oversold and the Crash came the next day. What is different now from then?

Thanks
-Greg

[J.Bilkins]

I think I should have won best picture award!



There was a ton of things I was gaming at the time, but mostly just had a feeling that it would rock the boat.

Always figure how the GSTT(Golden Sacks Trading Team) can screw the most amount of people in the shortest time frame.

TA is the best allie you will ever have in the markets. There is no skill better than pattern recognition because you can never believe the fundamentals and fraud runs rampant...

Watch poker championships on tv and learn their tactics, reasoning etc. all the time and you will start to get better I guarantee it......don't ever play poker with cash though if you are not a pro....unless it is strip poker of course! Then who cares!

[J.Bilkins]

Negative fundamentals and crashing subprimes does not make since for a reason to make a one week super gamble that could lose 100%. Especially when the time value gets blasted the most in the last week it seems... I am curious where you learned the term, "Marked to Market?"