25 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

Thank you for share your work Dev. You sound like a very experience trader. I am impressed that you also were short for 2/27 Crash. That was such an exciting day. I was so happy to see the Dow dropping out of control like an Anvil out a 20 story window. I cannot wait for the follow up soon which should be even more fantastic than the original. I am making a list of all the smart traders that predicted the 2/27 Crash and were short so that I can follow the future calls of these experts since I am still a novice and would like to learn from the masters. I am adding you to my list Dev.

Thanks
-Greg

Well thanks, but be warned,... my port-a-folio...in honor of ike,...is no where near it's highs of last year.

I've struggled lately, comparatively speaking,... my 10-30% gains per quarter have turn into about a 20% loss for this quarter.

Last year was really really good for me,... this year sure as I thought I would NEVER EVER have a losing quarter ever again, I got Zapped.

Knowing that this trading game is more of a MENTAL game of focus than anything. I'm sure I can see clearly

again and now going after and taking smaller gains. That's what's always worked for me .

Know we ALL have good signals,...but we don't always trust them,...and then sometimes there are just Human

mistakes made, so I try and trade less when I'm not ..."feeling" it or performing up to my own standards!

At this time,...thankfully, I've just worked my way back into the zone.

That dam 1m mark is just so allusive,.. 875 then bam 750 and struggling then back down to 700!

But if we can again keeep some volatility going,... it should only take a couple of singles and a double,...

to get back in the game.

I'm sadden that these daily and weekly ranges don't even compare to those of the late 90s and into 2003 so

it is a bit challenging to pick up on a 5-10% day trading the leveraged NDX both ways in a day.

Till then ...Trade Smart !

lisa,

Thanks for your inputs. I would like to ask you if were you short on 2/27 for that Crash? You said that Crash one comes from oversold conditions, but 2/26 was not oversold and the Crash came the next day. What is different now from then?

Thanks
-Greg

Qid
If I may suggest you do some digging into some older posts,...and charts, that may have been shared in the

two days leading up to the Feb 27 down move,... then take whatever charts/signals etc and compare those to todays.

I'll try and post some of my own work looking at,.. then vs now,.. a little bit later, but I'm looking forward to what you find.

[arbman]

Thanks for your inputs. I would like to ask you if were you short on 2/27 for that Crash? You said that Crash one comes from oversold conditions, but 2/26 was not oversold and the Crash came the next day. What is different now from then?

Feb 27 decline was a 4 standard deviation decline and it felt like a crash, but a crash would at least follow through one more day. It didn't, so it is hard to call that decline a crash first of all. I am rather perma-bearish compared to the many perma-bulls here, but I've been calling a top before the end of Feb for weeks prior to the decline and I was accumulating the short positions. I was a bit short going into it since I expected a slight retest into the first week of March for a bit more orderly decline and I was not fully short. I shorted right away that morning after the large gap down that failed to rally to the gap for several hours after the opening. Look it up in the messages...

What is different? not much, actually it is somewhat worse except the small spec bearishness is through the roof in the futures, the equity P/C is recovering from there. Let them turn bullish a bit more and yes, there is a chance for a sustained decline, if that steady decline gets overly speculated higher, then you can get a crash after 3-4 days of declines with the increasing volume. These were present at that time. If the breath improves, if the volume increases, yet the prices do not drop, then these conditions usually invalidate a crash potential quickly...

You have to understand that the operators are not dumb, they will not pay everyone unless the urge to sell becomes huge. I am not sure that's the case, there is a condition for further decline after this bounce completes, but a crash here needs to become first oversold. Many steady trenders quickly snapped back today, it will need some more time...

- kisa

[arbman]

Apparently On Feb 25th I said that a decline was in order for the following days.

On Feb 27th morning, I was getting short, not buying and I expect more declines into the following week. However, the hell broke loose in the afternoon.

- kisa

[greenie]

Hi Greg, Only person I believe who was confidently short on Feb 27th was Zentrader, although he did not disclose it in his blog. His blog zentrader13.blogspot.com is now full of poetry and messages of peace. Zen tracked sentiment, and faded all kind of news, etc. I think it is the only way you can be correct and be rich in this market. Zen still posts on the technicalwatch board. Although I noticed that he stopped posting since you joined this board, but you may be able to PM him to get some insights. Zen is very critical of QID, frac_man, xD&cox, popular news (subprime, china bubble, etc.). He is a good trader and you can learn a lot from him. Best, Greenie

[OEXCHAOS]

Gred, We who do this thing for a living would call the 2/27 plunge simply that. Most would call it a correction. And, I might add, I was Bearish going into it. There was REASON to be. Now, those reasons aren't really there. You can trade on super stupid things like fundamentals and still make money, but not until you learn proper money management and risk analysis. Learn those and you might be able to stick around long enough to learn TA and make some real money. Real people do that here all the time. When you see that the very best of them blow cold too, you'll see how important it is to be able to come back and play again. Mark

[PorkLoin]

Greenie: Zen tracked sentiment, and faded all kind of news, etc. I think it is the only way you can be correct and be rich in this market.

Greenie, WOW, now that's a change. And I agree -- it pays to keep an eye on sentiment.


Best,

Doug