16 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

hi Aire,

Thank you for posting your XAU Hurst work. The ~15 week cycles seems to work with the gold indices. I posted earlier this month here and I wonder what your take is on the larger cycles?

HUI Hurst

I see a 14 month (~60 week) and a 28 month (~120 week) which shows up quite well on the gold indices as well. I take the 120 week cycle as the mid-point of the 4.5 year cycle. A 60 week cycle seems to be very consistent starting from the Nov. 2000 low. I'm aware that these cycle periods are at odds with Hurst' 3 x 18 month cycles per 4.5 year cycle.

Tracking with the HUI cycles in this way, we should enter the last 15 week cycle shortly and then find 60 and 120 week cycle lows this summer (July?).

BTW, SPX cycle work has been outstanding for some time now.

cheers,

john

john, great to see you studying/working on the Hurst course. what's your opinion of the body of work?

i think there's two things to consider on the PM stocks. one is they will contain the nominal equity model cycles, tho with variation as you currently see. Hurst mentions in the course how the larger cycle waves for PM stocks would sometimes be slightly out of phase with the current equity market cycles, providing opposing shorts or longs in one or the other at the same time. we also know that overall trend of an equity is the sum of all larger cycles plus longer term fundamentals, hurst called this sigma el. the major fundamental for PM stocks' sigma el is the price of gold itself. Gold also trades on the nominal model with the 9 yr component the most dominant. Gold's larger cycles are also out of phase with equity cycles. i think whatever rally we will see at current time in XAU/HIU may be tempered by both the 4.5 yr cycle due in late july for equities in general and a nominal 9 moth low for GOLD itself due in the same general vicinity.

[SilentOne]

hi Aire,

great to see you studying/working on the Hurst course. what's your opinion of the body of work?

It is very thorough and rigorous, much like your Hurst analysis. I've still got to find the time to get through all of the material.

As I am taking baby steps here with Hurst, what is your opinion of NEM here? A VTL break implies the next larger cycle has topped (ie. 9 year cycle)? It is also locked in a downtrend and a breach of $40ish would compound its problems.



NEM has always had important implications for the sector. NEM is 13.5% of the XAU. I am also eyeing ABX, GG, GFI and FCX. FCX has been the most bullish miner post May '06, but then it is heavily weighted in copper as well.

PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (XAU)

cheers,

john

[airedale88]

silent/john, good work. that long term VTL break does show that the 9 yr cycle on Gold (part of sigma el for PM stocks) has topped and will no longer provide any upside strength. we're probably in a period where the equity cycle model will play a more important role if i'm correct in my assumptions that both that model and the separate Gold cycle model influence PM stocks.

[SilentOne]

hi aire,

that long term VTL break does show that the 9 yr cycle on Gold (part of sigma el for PM stocks) has topped and will no longer provide any upside strength

I have suspected for some time that the best of the gold indices may have been seen before May '06. Gold may press higher after the next low, but the performance of the miners will probably be underwhelming for a while.

I have looked at $HUI FLDs for the 15, 30, and 60 week cycles. Of course this assumes these cycles provide a fair cyclic model of the HUI.

I am not sure if I used the right settings to generate the FLDs for each cycle. (eg. 15 week FLD chart settings)

Here are the respective FLDs. I have not figured out yet how to merge them into the same chart.







As you can see the respective FLDs are bottoming and about to start rising. However, my question to you is: Are these FLDs setting up to be in a cascade position (for a significant decline)? If we get a weak rally out of the 15 week low into mid-late May, the 15 wk FLD will be about HUI 345, the 30 wk FLD 325, and the 60 wk at 345. Of course the HUI could just decline right now and take out the FLDs earlier. But a bounce seems much more likely.

I expect a summer low for a trade in this sector and will want to buy the next 15 week cycle bottom, which should be the next 60 and 120 week lows.

Your thoughts are always welcome.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 01 May 2007 - 07:38 AM.

[LeroyB3]

Silent, Your FLD's are off. For example, the 30 week FLD should be (1,16) instead of (1,30). Best, LB

[SilentOne]

Hi Leroy, Thanks for responding. I realize now that I mislabeled the respective FLDs in the above charts. I am unsure of how to use the settings at the barchart.com site. Thanks, I will regenerate the charts. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

Here are the new charts. I hope I have it right this time. I drew in the various FLDs on one chart as well. This was done by eye, so its not perfect. But you get the idea.

Looking at that last chart, I believe I have answered my original question.











cheers,

john