16 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

IMO XAU ready to bottom if friday's uptick wasn't the start. confirmation will be the break of the down trend line from the april high on the daily chart.



XAU weekly.........

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for all you do here. You are helpful and educational. Can't beat that.

[slupert]

IMO XAU ready to bottom if friday's uptick wasn't the start. confirmation will be the break of the down trend line from the april high on the daily chart.



XAU weekly.........

Would this negate your bullish stance on equitys? Are you looking for a small pullback, large? or do you have a bullish stance on both equitys and gold.?

[airedale88]

there is no consistent inverse effect between gold and silver stocks and other equities. the pm stocks are a sector with their own particular cycle phasing variations.

[Cirrus]

Thanks Airedale88! I really look forward to reading your posts and seeing your work. I posted two charts below that I watch closely to gauge gold stocks. I actually place slightly more emphasis on the second. The first chart below corresponds directly to your cyclical XAU chart. It's actually a ratio chart vs the SPX. One of the next two lows coming is a very important bottom for the XAU. I would think it's the second low unless my first chart had an 'abbreviated' cycle in March.

That matches with the second chart as spikes in this chart above five have been tremendous entries into gold stocks, which I believe are in a secular bull market. It seems that sometimes 'freefall decline' occurs in the XAU as it has approached five in the past.

I'm buying ABX Jan 09 calls on weakness in anticipation of this bottom. I've just purchases a few but I really want to load up. I think the XAU is about to start on another run. ABX will outperform most other gold large caps on the next run, IMVHO. Mangement has done a great job of closing out their pile of painful hedges. They are, by far, #1 as far as resources in the ground. ABX has a tremendous balance sheet and is quite cheap compared to their peers. They have been penalized by all those gold bugs who dismissed them because of their past agressive hedging. However, they will soon be completely unhedged. There are better stocks as far as cap gains going forward in the sector (mid and small caps like SA, VGZ and NAK) but ABX should do outstanding among the large caps.





http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU:$SPX&p=D&b=1&g=0&i=p73941970598&a=52794520&r=802.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$GOLD:$XAU,uu[f,a]wallynay[p][i][J31387139,Y]&r=66.png

[BearItch]

Aire -- Your work presents a dichotomy and some food for thought. Here you have the XAU botoming and a prior chart you posted the other week had the dollar bottoming. BTW, I was looking back and trying to find the 4 1/2 year equity cycle bottom in 1986. Where do you mark it during that time frame? I assume you regard the 1987 "crash" event as an anomoly?

[airedale88]

Aire -- Your work presents a dichotomy and some food for thought. Here you have the XAU botoming and a prior chart you posted the other week had the dollar bottoming.

BTW, I was looking back and trying to find the 4 1/2 year equity cycle bottom in 1986. Where do you mark it during that time frame? I assume you regard the 1987 "crash" event as an anomoly?

bear, nominal 4.5 yr low the week of 9/15/06.



US Dollar and XAU moved in tandem as recently as second 1/2 of 05, one or the other could just flatline or move up slightly. no indications on that right now..... http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p44680898264&r=2690.png

[SilentOne]

hi Aire,

Thank you for posting your XAU Hurst work. The ~15 week cycles seems to work with the gold indices. I posted earlier this month here and I wonder what your take is on the larger cycles?

HUI Hurst

I see a 14 month (~60 week) and a 28 month (~120 week) which shows up quite well on the gold indices as well. I take the 120 week cycle as the mid-point of the 4.5 year cycle. A 60 week cycle seems to be very consistent starting from the Nov. 2000 low. I'm aware that these cycle periods are at odds with Hurst' 3 x 18 month cycles per 4.5 year cycle.

Tracking with the HUI cycles in this way, we should enter the last 15 week cycle shortly and then find 60 and 120 week cycle lows this summer (July?).

BTW, SPX cycle work has been outstanding for some time now.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 29 April 2007 - 03:09 PM.

[dougie]

very interesting indeed! Thanks Air and Cirrus!

[airedale88]

hi Aire,

Thank you for posting your XAU Hurst work. The ~15 week cycles seems to work with the gold indices. I posted earlier this month here and I wonder what your take is on the larger cycles?

HUI Hurst

I see a 14 month (~60 week) and a 28 month (~120 week) which shows up quite well on the gold indices as well. I take the 120 week cycle as the mid-point of the 4.5 year cycle. A 60 week cycle seems to be very consistent starting from the Nov. 2000 low. I'm aware that these cycle periods are at odds with Hurst' 3 x 18 month cycles per 4.5 year cycle.

Tracking with the HUI cycles in this way, we should enter the last 15 week cycle shortly and then find 60 and 120 week cycle lows this summer (July?).

BTW, SPX cycle work has been outstanding for some time now.

cheers,

john