hi Aire,
Thank you for posting your XAU Hurst work. The ~15 week cycles seems to work with the gold indices. I posted earlier this month here and I wonder what your take is on the larger cycles?
HUI Hurst
I see a 14 month (~60 week) and a 28 month (~120 week) which shows up quite well on the gold indices as well. I take the 120 week cycle as the mid-point of the 4.5 year cycle. A 60 week cycle seems to be very consistent starting from the Nov. 2000 low. I'm aware that these cycle periods are at odds with Hurst' 3 x 18 month cycles per 4.5 year cycle.
Tracking with the HUI cycles in this way, we should enter the last 15 week cycle shortly and then find 60 and 120 week cycle lows this summer (July?).
BTW, SPX cycle work has been outstanding for some time now.
cheers,
john
john, great to see you studying/working on the Hurst course. what's your opinion of the body of work?
i think there's two things to consider on the PM stocks. one is they will contain the nominal equity model cycles, tho with variation as you currently see. Hurst mentions in the course how the larger cycle waves for PM stocks would sometimes be slightly out of phase with the current equity market cycles, providing opposing shorts or longs in one or the other at the same time. we also know that overall trend of an equity is the sum of all larger cycles plus longer term fundamentals, hurst called this sigma el. the major fundamental for PM stocks' sigma el is the price of gold itself. Gold also trades on the nominal model with the 9 yr component the most dominant. Gold's larger cycles are also out of phase with equity cycles. i think whatever rally we will see at current time in XAU/HIU may be tempered by both the 4.5 yr cycle due in late july for equities in general and a nominal 9 moth low for GOLD itself due in the same general vicinity.