11 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Have you looked at Decision Points PE Chart?
The link is found in this LINK

[arbman]

Never in the 20 year history of the AAII have we seen such a rise in bearishness coupled with a rising market.

I am almost certain that the poll is not correct, but the bearish bias is higher than the previous highs. I think the market corrects into the summer and proves that it is indeed very strong and continues higher this year.

Among all of the economic indications, you didn't cover the most important one and that is the high commodity prices, all of the other ones are secondary since they can be all fixed with the lower rates. If the commodity prices stop rising, the rates will go lower and the USD will not weaken considerably either...

I think a quick 10-12% correction into the summer can fix the hot commodity prices for another year or so and it can definitely fuel another long term rally into 2008 or even 2009. If the Fed decides to squeeze the housing further, I don't think there will be any hot money left to move into the stocks, it already did since late 2005...

I moved mostly into cash, I have some RUT short and commodity and resource longs as a hedge.

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 03 May 2007 - 10:46 PM.