5 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Tuesday morning hooda thought this would turn out to be a "Normal" first week of May.
Namely up 75% of the time averaging 1%. Right where we are!
Sunday Post

If you bought Tuesday morning, you could have doubled that normal return.
Or if you bought SSO Tuesday and sold today = 4%

But according to Mike Burk, May is the 3rd worst month, averaging 0%.
OTC does a bit better. May's the 4th best month, up 55% of the time, averaging +0.4%.

Fed won't do nutin' Wednesday.

So, do we regroup and then hit new highs in the S&P after a rest?

Or is it blow-off time, using near record shorts for fuel?
We are less than 20 S&P points away from the all time high.
You know they are gunning for it.

Sentiment is moving a little more bullish, but not much.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 May 2007 - 10:06 AM.

[Iblayz]

Just bought QID @ 47.20

[Rogerdodger]

See! It's so tempting to short here. I looked at my recent trades. The ones in red were all shorts. . . . But what if that $VIX just continues to fall?

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 May 2007 - 10:10 AM.

[arbman]

CBOE Equity P/C = 0.46, finally some acceptence? BTW, the tick on Nasdaq and NYSE shows that there was no buy programs this morning, it is all about selling pretty much, I am surprised that the A/D and trins are still where they are. RUT is underperforming, NDX and NDX is underperforming SPX depsite the HUGE Yahoo news. The semis are doing well too though, but the financials and industrials are now underperforming the energy and materials...

[Rogerdodger]

One would think. I actually have been wondering if something was wrong with the sentiment measures for the last few weeks. Every day the DOW rallied to new highs, it brought no bullish movement! It was not believed. Maybe the Feb sell-off had everyone waiting for "the next shoe to drop." Maybe the yeild curve. Maybe sub-prime news. Or maybe it was the perceived disparity between the DOW making new highs but not the SPX, NDX. But the DOW was just catching up with NYSE, Russell, Transports, etc. which have been making new all time highs for a long time.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 May 2007 - 10:26 AM.

[redfoliage2]

One would think.
I actually have been wondering if something was wrong with the sentiment measures for the last few weeks.
Every day the DOW rallied to new highs, it brought no bullish movement!
It was not believed.

Maybe the Feb sell-off had everyone waiting for "the next shoe to drop."
Maybe the yeild curve.
Maybe sub-prime news.
Or maybe it was the perceived disparity between the DOW making new highs but not the SPX, NDX.

But the DOW was just catching up with NYSE, Russell, Transports, etc. which have been making new all time highs for a long time.

It depends who measures it (sentiment) and who are the respondents and if they are short or long.