8 replies to this topic

[wyocowboy]

It is hard to fathom the amount of bearishness that abounds in in the trading community. I am not a day trader, but even reducing my time frame to meet that criteria, it is hard to find a bearish case against this relentless run, but still folks bring up fundamentals like borrowing, dropping dollar, high PE, etc. As long as you continue to believe the U.S. is not worthy of your money, this run will continue. Others have said it, and history has shown it, but "ye of little faith" will pay for it. I would like to thank you for the money - please keep it coming. I mean no offense to those who believe otherwise - I truly am grateful, and am compelled to tell you that you are on the wrong side. Stops protect me if I am wrong, and I hope you use the same diligence on your side....... Those who use fundamental arguments, please check stock earnings yields vs. bond yields. Check assets vs. debt. Check on the long term history of the U.S. and explain how stupid "Joe Sixpack"could keep afloat for so long - unless the possibility exists that he is not as stupid as those who wish to be smarter would like to think. My wife of thirty years and I were discussing this evening how much more difficult the late 70's and early 80's were vs. todays perception. I know I am an old geezer, but to become bullish back then was a vast leap in comparison - the bears of today have shallow comparisons to the imminent collapse of those years, but the bull prevailed, just as it will in these troubled times. I know this board is labeled a "technical" board, and in my early years, technical, or "charting" served me well. But as the popularity of it grows, it has become less useful. Unfortunately, a great many people place a lot of faith in random patterns, but these patterns can work if you have your stops placed correctly - i.e., if your stops are placed at a little less than half the average true range, and you are correct at guessing the direction of the market, you will make money. Theoretically, even if you flip a coin, you will make money if you let your profits ride. Moving averages, chart patterns, volume, and other articles of faith have nothing to do with it. It is always amusing to me that people that have no belief in God are quite willing to put faith in a random sequence of numbers or patterns - but I am digressing into sensitive territory and apologize to any I may have offended. Unless you have inside information, or are a rocket scientist that can analyze numbers better than anyone else, the only advantage is sentiment, or behavioral. Psychology and the behavior of crowds has remained constant through the centuries, and the human condition suggests it will remain in the foreseeable future. If you want to be successful, you will have to fade the crowd - and the crowd is definitely bearish, despite the fundamentals. For those that use fundamentals, I would caution that you have to look at the actual numbers, the degree of error or level of certainty, and interpret them yourself, without reliance on the "guru of the day". For what it is worth, the bear case is always more intellectually appealling, and if you want to sell a book or a newsletter, then I would advise a bearish slant - especially in the current time - murder,mayhem,disastor and despondancy sell quite well now......despite the fact that that the current conditions are better than ever. If I struck a chord of "F--k You", or of "Amen", please take a moment to check on what you are doing, what it is based on , and how well you are protecting yourself if you are wrong. Personally, I ask myself every morning "What in the hell are you doing", and if I can't answer it - I know I am screwing up. P.S. - To All - Have mercy, this is my opinion, feel free to state your opinion, but base it on facts and not hatred. You can attack me all you want, but don't expect me to respond. Peace to all.............

[mmm]

My response to you is that I; like you, do not post very often on this board. Since I have followed various posters here over the last few years I have learned to respect certain individuals over others. You are one of the posters I pay attention to when you do post. You are one of the few that have taught me a thing or two here on this board. I am glad you said what you said for the most part since you have reflected my opinion about such bearish sentiment not only here but most everywhere I look. The crowd is way overboard on this bearish view and tells me the market is more likely to explode to the upside at this point rather than have any kind of a significant selloff. That selloff is coming but who knows when that will be. As long as I see this kind of bearish sentiment I remain long. Time will tell us who will be right so like you I have my stops. Dennis

[relax]

Agree!

way too much focus on volume, breadth and divergences - they really haven't mattered

My response to you is that I; like you, do not post very often on this board. Since I have followed various posters here over the last few years I have learned to respect certain individuals over others. You are one of the posters I pay attention to when you do post. You are one of the few that have taught me a thing or two here on this board. I am glad you said what you said for the most part since you have reflected my opinion about such bearish sentiment not only here but most everywhere I look. The crowd is way overboard on this bearish view and tells me the market is more likely to explode to the upside at this point rather than have any kind of a significant selloff. That selloff is coming but who knows when that will be. As long as I see this kind of bearish sentiment I remain long. Time will tell us who will be right so like you I have my stops.

Dennis

[n83]

My response to you is that I; like you, do not post very often on this board. Since I have followed various posters here over the last few years I have learned to respect certain individuals over others. You are one of the posters I pay attention to when you do post. You are one of the few that have taught me a thing or two here on this board. I am glad you said what you said for the most part since you have reflected my opinion about such bearish sentiment not only here but most everywhere I look. The crowd is way overboard on this bearish view and tells me the market is more likely to explode to the upside at this point rather than have any kind of a significant selloff. That selloff is coming but who knows when that will be. As long as I see this kind of bearish sentiment I remain long. Time will tell us who will be right so like you I have my stops.

Dennis

agree in principle..but how does one gauge the sentiment..what is 'way overboard bearish' or vice-versa..where do you get such data? message boards (this one?)? AAII? p/c?

[bullishnot]

Top will be in very shortly, sorry to rain on your parade.

[OEXCHAOS]

Nice post. I have only one thing to add and that is that sentiment doesn't have a particularly linear relationship with stock prices. Often--and I mean very often--you'll get really excessive Bearish readings and only a small pop higher. Similarly in the converse. But overall, the Bull has a some (perhaps long) way to go, pullbacks notwithstanding. The sentiment is pretty clear on that. Mark

[Rogerdodger]

"The Disconnect"
The weak dollar has a very positive effect on the large international companies' earnings.
Their PE ratio is still relatively low as you can see here: DecisionPoint.

[Russ]

Care to give the reason's why you think so? TIA

Top will be in very shortly, sorry to rain on your parade.

[OEXCHAOS]

My response to you is that I; like you, do not post very often on this board. Since I have followed various posters here over the last few years I have learned to respect certain individuals over others. You are one of the posters I pay attention to when you do post. You are one of the few that have taught me a thing or two here on this board. I am glad you said what you said for the most part since you have reflected my opinion about such bearish sentiment not only here but most everywhere I look. The crowd is way overboard on this bearish view and tells me the market is more likely to explode to the upside at this point rather than have any kind of a significant selloff. That selloff is coming but who knows when that will be. As long as I see this kind of bearish sentiment I remain long. Time will tell us who will be right so like you I have my stops.

Dennis

agree in principle..but how does one gauge the sentiment..what is 'way overboard bearish' or vice-versa..where do you get such data? message boards (this one?)? AAII? p/c?

I comment on it from time to time (every other week) in my interview and I post stuff here and in the Market Analysis area. Other than that, you gotta cough up a couple bucks.

And I'm thinking we don't have nearly enough Bulls, but it's not as far from enough Bulls to get a pullback as some think.

It's going to get tricky in here real soon. Sentiment should go all over the map.

Mark