7 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

I gave Gold a chance here but TWT.
The May low equals the March '05 low.
The top downtrend line begins with the Nov '05 high at a little over 92.50.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p25955512089&a=32101703&r=5873.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 May 2007 - 11:22 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p31340796047&a=45943207&r=5929.png

[vitaminm]

$GOLD/uptrend rsi1>2>3 in daily downtrend to 685-690

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p01059645883

[SemiBizz]

I dunno Roger, Sure looks to me like a higher low... http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=t10300928019&r=2606$.png

[Rogerdodger]

Yes. I do see that.
$USD turned back from resistance but if it just pauses here and then...
If it can move above 82.50 it will surely retest that downtrend line at around 83.50ish.
$GOLD is bouncing off that lower BB. We will see if it continues.




This may help the USD:

Surplus 05/10/07
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The federal government reported a surplus of 177.7 bln usd last month on record receipts for the month of April, the Treasury Department said today.

For the fiscal year to date, the department also reported a cumulative deficit less than half of the comparable period last year.

The April record 383.6 bln usd receipts were up 22 pct from the year before. The Treasury said that was due to unexpectedly higher individual tax payments.
Fiscal year-to-date Treasury receipts are up 11 pct to 1.50 trln usd while outlays have risen 3 pct to 1.59 trln usd.

[vitaminm]

$GOLD/uptrend rsi1>2>3 in daily downtrend to 685-690

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...id=p01059645883

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$usd...id=p01059645883

[Kimston]

Hi Roger,

While I can't yet rule out a re-test/break of the lows, I still believe the dollar is headed much higher and CRB lower per the analysis I posted last weekend here:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=69881

If it doesn't, it won't be too good for my trading accounts as I've accumulated a massive long position (mostly posted on the Gold board). Except for 1994, when it failed to show up, the 170 week cycle has never yielded a move of less than 8 points or a duration of less than 12 weeks. We're 1 week in and I'm sitting primarily in December calls to go along with September calls and futures. If we stall at the 83.50 upper trendline I will probably lighten up, only to reload when/if we have momentum above the line.

That terminal wedge pattern falling right into the pit of pessimism that permeates the punditry regarding the dollar, just as the 170 wk cycle lines up; it doesn't get any better than that. The Commericial (COTs) remain heavily long. These are the set-ups that speculators wait a long time for. The analysts and market commentators on CNBC and the guests on the Nightly Business Report seem quite consistent in recommending stocks that "will do well with a weak or falling dollar"? Is anyone out there forecasting a sizeable rally in the dollar(besides me, of course, and I see Jake Bernstein is a bull)? Here's a quote from a bullish article on gold by Robert Walberg on MSN's MoneyCentral:

"Finally, the dollar will continue to deteriorate in value due to mounting federal budget deficits and a high current-account deficit."

http://articles.mone...artToShine.aspx

Still a lot of bears out there.

Kimston

[spielchekr]