Hi Roger,
While I can't yet rule out a re-test/break of the lows, I still believe the dollar is headed much higher and CRB lower per the analysis I posted last weekend here:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=69881
If it doesn't, it won't be too good for my trading accounts as I've accumulated a massive long position (mostly posted on the Gold board). Except for 1994, when it failed to show up, the 170 week cycle has never yielded a move of less than 8 points or a duration of less than 12 weeks. We're 1 week in and I'm sitting primarily in December calls to go along with September calls and futures. If we stall at the 83.50 upper trendline I will probably lighten up, only to reload when/if we have momentum above the line.
That terminal wedge pattern falling right into the pit of pessimism that permeates the punditry regarding the dollar, just as the 170 wk cycle lines up; it doesn't get any better than that. The Commericial (COTs) remain heavily long. These are the set-ups that speculators wait a long time for. The analysts and market commentators on CNBC and the guests on the Nightly Business Report seem quite consistent in recommending stocks that "will do well with a weak or falling dollar"? Is anyone out there forecasting a sizeable rally in the dollar(besides me, of course, and I see Jake Bernstein is a bull)? Here's a quote from a bullish article on gold by Robert Walberg on MSN's MoneyCentral:
"Finally, the dollar will continue to deteriorate in value due to mounting federal budget deficits and a high current-account deficit."
http://articles.mone...artToShine.aspx
Still a lot of bears out there.
Kimston