spooky..same with COT data....I'm noticing certain boards have posts stating that the commercials have got even longer the big contract. After them being short all the way up.....why would it be bullish now that they are long. Useless information as far as I'm concerned..I've never seen any consistency in COT data and how it related to price. Maybe others have...but I can't see it.
More of this sentiment is an art not a science perhaps? I look primarily at the large S&P COT data and can't think of a more spot-on indicator since the spring of 06. At the May 06 price peak, commercials were at bear market net short postion as well as at the 2/27/07 price peak. As those breaks unfolded the commercials rapidly reduced their shorts and/or went net long. The configurations between the commercials and the small specs the past 8 weeks have been as good, if not better, than at anytime this decade and remains at surprising bullish levels. It even looks like the large specs are about to revert to net short. I will agree with you that the COT can be inconsistent. It was a super indicator in the mid to late 80s/early to mid 90s but pretty worthless beginning about 96 until September of 2000 where it was then pretty much spot-on throughout the ensuing bear market.
Gary, what do you pay attention to? I watch the Small Speculators position. They have been net short since the week of March 12 and have been getting killed.
