Two Sell Siganls hit on Friday
#1
Posted 20 May 2007 - 02:34 PM
#2
Posted 20 May 2007 - 03:35 PM
Hello Folks: I use around 25 different signals to figure out being long or short. Out of the 25 signal 7 I have are accurate signals with 75% of success of being right when they hit. These signals do not always hit on tops or bottoms, but Friday I had two sell signals that warrant exiting longs or being short. The two signals I have are
4-day average of NYSE TRIN, which when goes below .71 ( now it is .69 ) shows short term weakness. This eludes to a flat or down week next week, so it warrants going from long to cash and re-entering at a later date.
The other signal is 10-day average OEX Put-Call Ratio that tends to fluctuate .4 to .6 between medium tops and bottoms. This has hit 1.79 and has traveled at least .2. This generally gives a 5% to 10% return so it warrants trading to trading short. This is medium term indicator. So as long as OEX Put-Call Ratio stays high this week being long is risky. When this travels from a low ( let's say 1.79 to 1.59 ) during a sell-off the Sell signal is lifted. If the market rises and the indicator drops below 1.79, the sell-signal is also negated. OEX Put-Call is generally non-contrarian while Equity and CBOE are contrarian. Equity and CBOE Put/Call ratio are relatively low but not low enough to issue a sell signal for those indicators, but not close to being high enough to ignore the OEX Put-Call Ratio......
Barry
#3
Posted 20 May 2007 - 04:28 PM
#4
Posted 20 May 2007 - 05:43 PM
#5
Posted 20 May 2007 - 09:35 PM
#6
Posted 20 May 2007 - 09:51 PM
#7
Posted 20 May 2007 - 10:18 PM
25 different signals?
Yowza, how in the heck does one trade that?
They are split up into 4 different catagories:::
1 - Trend ( Lagging indicators )
2 - Divergence ( Leading Indicators )
3 - Sentiment
4 - Support and Resistance
Also split them up in to Short Term, and Intermediate Term Signals
25 give you somewhat of a confidence level of any one indicator. It has been tough to trade the indicators over the last year, because the market has been disjointed from reality. If my 5 Trend indictors all agree on Bear or Bull I stick with that unless ALL my divergence indicators are telling me opposite, or short term indicators tell me something different.
I just mentioned two of my more reliable indicators, so we can see if it picks up a turn this week.
Barry
#8
Posted 20 May 2007 - 11:44 PM
#9
Posted 21 May 2007 - 08:35 AM
It has been tough to trade the indicators over the last year, because the market has been disjointed from reality.
Or maybe the market is reality.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.