8 replies to this topic

[qqqqtrdr]

Hello Folks: I use around 25 different signals to figure out being long or short. Out of the 25 signal 7 I have are accurate signals with 75% of success of being right when they hit. These signals do not always hit on tops or bottoms, but Friday I had two sell signals that warrant exiting longs or being short. The two signals I have are 4-day average of NYSE TRIN, which when goes below .71 ( now it is .69 ) shows short term weakness. This eludes to a flat or down week next week, so it warrants going from long to cash and re-entering at a later date. The other signal is 10-day average OEX Put-Call Ratio that tends to fluctuate .4 to .6 between medium tops and bottoms. This has hit 1.79 and has traveled at least .2. This generally gives a 5% to 10% return so it warrants trading to trading short. This is medium term indicator. So as long as OEX Put-Call Ratio stays high this week being long is risky. When this travels from a low ( let's say 1.79 to 1.59 ) during a sell-off the Sell signal is lifted. If the market rises and the indicator drops below 1.79, the sell-signal is also negated. OEX Put-Call is generally non-contrarian while Equity and CBOE are contrarian. Equity and CBOE Put/Call ratio are relatively low but not low enough to issue a sell signal for those indicators, but not close to being high enough to ignore the OEX Put-Call Ratio...... Barry

[crestdorf]

thanks.

Hello Folks: I use around 25 different signals to figure out being long or short. Out of the 25 signal 7 I have are accurate signals with 75% of success of being right when they hit. These signals do not always hit on tops or bottoms, but Friday I had two sell signals that warrant exiting longs or being short. The two signals I have are

4-day average of NYSE TRIN, which when goes below .71 ( now it is .69 ) shows short term weakness. This eludes to a flat or down week next week, so it warrants going from long to cash and re-entering at a later date.

The other signal is 10-day average OEX Put-Call Ratio that tends to fluctuate .4 to .6 between medium tops and bottoms. This has hit 1.79 and has traveled at least .2. This generally gives a 5% to 10% return so it warrants trading to trading short. This is medium term indicator. So as long as OEX Put-Call Ratio stays high this week being long is risky. When this travels from a low ( let's say 1.79 to 1.59 ) during a sell-off the Sell signal is lifted. If the market rises and the indicator drops below 1.79, the sell-signal is also negated. OEX Put-Call is generally non-contrarian while Equity and CBOE are contrarian. Equity and CBOE Put/Call ratio are relatively low but not low enough to issue a sell signal for those indicators, but not close to being high enough to ignore the OEX Put-Call Ratio......

Barry

[bullishnot]

Great post, agree.. sell signals all around and tankage awaits..

[Rich]

I think that taking some profits (increasing your cash position) now might be a good idea. I would not go short; however. My model is still pointing UP. Rich

[GOOSE2]

25 different signals? Yowza, how in the heck does one trade that?

[raleigh]

like the twenty-four varieties of Crest toothpaste. http://www.oligopoly...2003/08/17.html

[qqqqtrdr]

25 different signals?

Yowza, how in the heck does one trade that?

They are split up into 4 different catagories:::

1 - Trend ( Lagging indicators )
2 - Divergence ( Leading Indicators )
3 - Sentiment
4 - Support and Resistance

Also split them up in to Short Term, and Intermediate Term Signals

25 give you somewhat of a confidence level of any one indicator. It has been tough to trade the indicators over the last year, because the market has been disjointed from reality. If my 5 Trend indictors all agree on Bear or Bull I stick with that unless ALL my divergence indicators are telling me opposite, or short term indicators tell me something different.

I just mentioned two of my more reliable indicators, so we can see if it picks up a turn this week.

Barry

[skott]

new word award of the day......"tankage"

[Rogerdodger]

It has been tough to trade the indicators over the last year, because the market has been disjointed from reality.

Or maybe the market is reality.