6 replies to this topic

[spielchekr]

http://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.html

Has everyone been shamed into buying yet?

Edited by spielchekr, 01 June 2007 - 08:44 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for posting this. It's an eye opener. This is the first time I remember seeing this one but I think those stats are shouting out loud. Sentimentrader.com had both short & longer term bullish jumps tonight.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 June 2007 - 12:10 AM.

[Douglas]

Have you done a longer term chart of the sentiment data at the TSP site? I down loaded the data shown at the site for the last two years, but would be interested in seeing its performance versus an index over a longer period. Thanks.

[spielchekr]

RD: "yers welscomes" (That's Popeye slang for you are welcome.. ahr ahr ahr). Also note that 444, that registered at the highest recorded participation level from that particular chart going back to the end of '05. Of course, there's always a flip side to everything, Here's the June seasonality chart they posted (scroll to bottom) on their comments thread, provided to them courtesy of Sentimentrader. It's calculated way back to 1950, I see. Reading current entry to that thread, this TSP reading didn't go unnoticed by the writer either. but AAII is another ball of wax. I think we need to call in an expert here (ahem, Mark?). The author implies that rather than launching us higher, this discrepancy is rather supporting the dip buying, if I'm rephrasing his interpretation correctly.

"Today I want to talk about the sentiment surveys. I am a big fan of watching these surveys when they hit extreme levels. This week's AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came in with another unusual reading. 33% of those polled said they were bullish, while 45% were bearish. These are percentages you would see at market bottoms, not at new highs. Very strange, and I continue to believe this is the main reason stocks are not pulling back with any authority; just minor 1% or 2% dips."


Douglas: is there a download link at TSP?

[relax]

Well if you look at the previous sell signals, where sentiment ratio has been over 2.0, the sell signals have really not worked to well

It worked well before the february crash

26 march and 9 april sell signal worked very poorly

There were three sell signals in a row back in december 2006 and they did not produce a big drop

Thanks for posting this. It's an eye opener.
This is the first time I remember seeing this one but I think those stats are shouting out loud.

Sentimentrader.com had both short & longer term bullish jumps tonight.

[Douglas]

Douglas: is there a download link at TSP?


[/quote]

Speilchekr, I just printed out the data displayed on the sentiment page and loaded it into EXCEL to create a chart, but the data only goes back to Dec 2005.

I was hoping someone has been watching this longer and could show off a more extensive chart.

Also, does anyone know anyone at AAII? Their sentiment figure is strange. It would appear the folks being surveyed watch the report and want to always be contrarians so they switch from bullish to bearish as soon as they see a swing in the opposite direction. In control jargon, the gain on their feedback loop is too high.

[Rogerdodger]

I think we need to call in an expert here (ahem, Mark?). The author implies that rather than launching us higher, this discrepancy is rather supporting the dip buying, if I'm rephrasing his interpretation correctly.

See Mark's post above.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 June 2007 - 12:29 PM.