22 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

xD,

I am wondering what is continuing to inspire your bearish outlook. I acknowledge the numbers that you are mentioning, but they are fresh. The II ratio went bad just last week and the CPCE/CPCI numbers went belly up only Friday. So while i can understand a negative outlook on let's say this week, your IT bearish outlook is puzzling. There has to be something more than just this last week's development....right?

Also, why do so many people insist that the COT data is bullish - a stark contradiction to what you have been suggesting.

-rkd

p.s. did you make your blog private?

Aside from option and sentiment polls which are supportive for a decline in my opinion, most of the intermediate term internals are in sell.

Both Nasdaq and NYSE new highs-lows diff. been declining since early April. Number of the stocks above 50 and 200 dma in Nasdaq and NYSE topped out before Feb 27 crash, all indices made significant higher highs ever since , these measures are still going down. Bullish percentages that measures number of the stocks breaking out are going down on both indices.
Not to mention, McSums are in downtrend for sometime now. NYSE is about to make new all time highs, AD line is not even close.

While those divergences may last longer than most can stay liquid, one of my favorite indicators, 10 DMA of equity PC hit the spot. IF you have it, just draw a line through July 05, Jan 06, December 06 tops, that is the trend that was hit in early June. After a brief topping action, S&P cratered 50 points 2 weeks ago. But that was just a start. Most of the corrections/sell offs this indicator nailed in the past lasted minimum 3 months.
Dear God, my bond / stock system is giving a sell signal in biblical proportions as of Friday's close.

COT data is not getting bullish, is not very bearish either but it is getting bearish. Some people analyse COT data as a whole, including eminis and other indices which may be used for hedging. I think SP big contract where commercials and large traders operate.

No I did not make my blog private

Edited by xD&Cox, 17 June 2007 - 02:07 PM.

[A-ha]

looks like lots of people having problem accessing. Blog is not private and will not be private ever. Try to clean your cookies or log out of your google id. You should be able to access it.

[relax]

I couldn't check it out either, had to log in....don't have a log in

looks like lots of people having problem accessing.
Blog is not private and will not be private ever.

Try to clean your cookies or log out of your google id. You should be able to access it.

[fib_1618]

NYSE is about to make new all time highs, AD line is not even close.

Ummm....define "not even close".

Fib

[A-ha]

I couldn't check it out either, had to log in....don't have a log in

Sorry, I just checked the settings, private thing was turned on.

I dont know who and why did that, probably happened accidentally.
i fixed it, you should not have any problem now

[relax]

Wespect ;-)

I couldn't check it out either, had to log in....don't have a log in

Sorry, I just checked the settings, private thing was turned on.

I dont know who and why did that, probably happened accidentally.
i fixed it, you should not have any problem now

[rkd80]

xD,

thanks for the reply. i am on your side and have been and still am fully short, however a few things bother me. Divergencies are a tough nut to crack. i got chart after chart that shows them and they can range from 2 weeks to 4 months. as a timing tool they are virtually useless - but you are pretty adamant about the sell off happening as early as next week! Something more specific like the way you use your PC ratio ( i cant do DMA, i did 10ema but it didnt work too well) or your stock/bond indicator.

well, i dont want to pry into your methodology - but i do tend to go after people's explanation than rather their objective bear or bull calls. good luck to us

-rkd

xD,

I am wondering what is continuing to inspire your bearish outlook. I acknowledge the numbers that you are mentioning, but they are fresh. The II ratio went bad just last week and the CPCE/CPCI numbers went belly up only Friday. So while i can understand a negative outlook on let's say this week, your IT bearish outlook is puzzling. There has to be something more than just this last week's development....right?

Also, why do so many people insist that the COT data is bullish - a stark contradiction to what you have been suggesting.

-rkd

p.s. did you make your blog private?

Aside from option and sentiment polls which are supportive for a decline in my opinion, most of the intermediate term internals are in sell.

Both Nasdaq and NYSE new highs-lows diff. been declining since early April. Number of the stocks above 50 and 200 dma in Nasdaq and NYSE topped out before Feb 27 crash, all indices made significant higher highs ever since , these measures are still going down. Bullish percentages that measures number of the stocks breaking out are going down on both indices.
Not to mention, McSums are in downtrend for sometime now. NYSE is about to make new all time highs, AD line is not even close.

While those divergences may last longer than most can stay liquid, one of my favorite indicators, 10 DMA of equity PC hit the spot. IF you have it, just draw a line through July 05, Jan 06, December 06 tops, that is the trend that was hit in early June. After a brief topping action, S&P cratered 50 points 2 weeks ago. But that was just a start. Most of the corrections/sell offs this indicator nailed in the past lasted minimum 3 months.
Dear God, my bond / stock system is giving a sell signal in biblical proportions as of Friday's close.

COT data is not getting bullish, is not very bearish either but it is getting bearish. Some people analyse COT data as a whole, including eminis and other indices which may be used for hedging. I think SP big contract where commercials and large traders operate.

No I did not make my blog private

[A-ha]

Yes I agree divergences can extend longer than you can stay liquid. That is what I said in my previous post. 1- trend line studies indicate a reversal right here 2- PC ratios (all segments) are in sell 3- Stocks must sell off significantly or rates must plunge fast next week to normalize this stock bond relation. This is one of the fundamental constants of the financial markets.. 4- Yen is near the long term support (multidecade) this can produce a sharp snap back that squeeze some liquidity out of the system 5- I am getting sell signals from my system. This is tested black box system with a high accuracy. #1 is the most important of all

Edited by xD&Cox, 17 June 2007 - 08:22 PM.

[rkd80]

well TLs we all can do, tried tested and true. I guess i will refer to your blog for those as I just dont see which TLs on what time frames are calling for the reversal. if you have the desire and/or inclination to explain - arkadyka@yahoo.com would be the email. i would certainly appreciate it, although i do not expect it. thnx xd.

Yes I agree divergences can extend longer than you can stay liquid. That is what I said in my previous post.

1- trend line studies indicate a reversal right here
2- PC ratios (all segments) are in sell
3- Stocks must sell off significantly or rates must plunge fast next week to normalize this stock bond relation. This is one of the fundamental constants of the financial markets..
4- Yen is near the long term support (multidecade) this can produce a sharp snap back that squeeze some liquidity out of the system
5- I am getting sell signals from my system. This is tested black box system with a high accuracy.

#1 is the most important of all

[A-ha]

Not trying to convince anyone but talking about what i think and do.

They are posted on my blog this weekend, and they were posted before S&P cratered 50 points 2 weeks ago.

same long term charts, nothing changed and you aint see nothin yet...

note that according to those charts, SPX can make a new marginal high (a few points) and it wouldnt make any difference at all.. the sucker going down over the IT



http://xtrends.blogs...hird-round.html

Edited by xD&Cox, 17 June 2007 - 09:05 PM.