6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

LEAD: Tokyo stocks soar in morning on yen's fall, U.S. stock rise+
TOKYO, June 18 (AP) - (Kyodo)—(EDS: ADDING INFO) Tokyo stocks surged Monday morning, with the Nikkei index gaining on the yen's depreciation and rises in U.S. stocks to the level seen before February's global stock plunge.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 177.23 points, or 0.99 percent, to 18,148.72, topping its closing quote of 18,119.92 on Feb. 27, the day before the global stock plunge.



"With the possibility of the U.S. economy making a soft-landing looking high, global stocks are likely to advance" said Hiroichi Nishi, equities chief at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc.

[donone]

I think we have the "blow-off" TOP at last. Rio hit 100 in Australia and for the first time in 7 years I have started buying Puts on some of these resource stocks, very cheap insurance out of Oct. China at a new high today pushing the Aussie market higher.

[arbman]

Celebrate "US soft landing"

I don't think the economy has landed anywhere yet though!

You would think that the same leadership should just carry on for a few more weeks at least, but the bullish speculation is a lot more rampant than the liquidity will be capable to support this market within a week. That's my FF...

The OCC readings for both the equity and index options are entering to the alarming territory this week, so are the P/C ratios on Friday. The dollar amounts and the premiums spent on the equity calls were near the record levels for the year last week. I am looking for the speculation trend to continue this week, especially if the indices refuse to pull back...

As I said a few days ago, it is hard to pick the exact top from here, but the current rally has the potential to mark an IT top since the number of break outs peaked and is now weakening and the breath momentum is not as oversold as it was anymore...

- kisa

[arbman]

I will continue probably to keep any short positions on the rate sensitive small to mid cap stocks until there are signs of weakening in the prices. I am still keeping a little bit of index longs since the middle of the last week...

[VolPivots]

The OCC readings for both the equity and index options are entering to the alarming territory this week, so are the P/C ratios on Friday. The dollar amounts and the premiums spent on the equity calls were near the record levels for the year last week. I am looking for the speculation trend to continue this week, especially if the indices refuse to pull back...

As I said a few days ago, it is hard to pick the exact top from here, but the current rally has the potential to mark an IT top since the number of break outs peaked and is now weakening and the breath momentum is not as oversold as it was anymore...

- kisa

Thx for the info kisa...I don't track it actively, but do think there's a goldmine of info in the OCC data. Ingredients are there for an IT top with just a few holdouts (e.g. 'smart' vs. 'dumb' money like indicators). I have a long-term AB=CD harmonic targeting 1543 and change, but will have to wait and see into the FOMC meeting.

[A-ha]

I don't think the economy has landed anywhere yet though!

It is just hovering on a pile of soft cash that is being eaten by inflation...
Landing has not even started yet.


However there is solution for that...

[arbman]

The answer that will make you money over the next couple of weeks is what these guys are up to;

(Securities Lending Transaction Volume)

Now obviously, the pattern worked just as I expected, albeit with an increased volatility, but these guys are still borrowing in the record amounts.

If this has also peaked now, the next high in the prices, if followed with the excess speculation, will mark the IT top since the growth in the liquidity will not be quite helping for a few months, neither the leadership as I said above...

- kisa