13 replies to this topic

[NAV]

NAV, what's your read on the indian market?

I keep getting this feeling that it's being distributed, but I don't get current quotes on it and it's hard for me to do any good analysis on it. I just keep looking at day old charts and thinking, "something's up..."

Mark

Mr Dev,

Well said !!


Emerging markets are what i would like to call dumbazz markets to some extent, so far as the VST moves are concerned. They react to U.S market close with more than 80% odds. But then the trend takes over. Each market needs to be anlayzed on it's own technicals.

This is coming from someone who is trading the futures in Indian market right now. What happened was there was a huge gap-up in the indian market here, based on U.S market close. Nothing else !. Despite the huge gap-up, they coudn't even turn the 5-min trend up. I have shorted the gap-up big time here and all i can see is it's breaking down. Next 30-minutes or so could see the gap closed. We'll see....


These monster breakaway gap-ups and the kickoff of wave 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 to the upside.....i am still waiting patiently

Mark,

Indian capital markets are so unsophisticated and underdeveloped at this point in time. It's so diificult to even get a decent real time quotes on Nifty futures and i had to look at e-signal to get real-time quotes. Indian data providers are scarce and even when they exist they are so pathetic and so unreliable and so pricey that you won't beleive. I pay commisions about 10 times more than what i pay in the U.S. It's hard to even find a charting service that provides a decent daily A/D line, let alone other exotic indicators. Most of the decisions i make are based on price and momentum alone.

Without having access to historical A/D data, i am relying on my tape reading skills and it certainly looks distributive. Looks like the $BSE has completed it's wave 1 of wave 4 (intermediate degree). If we make new recovery highs on $SPX and $BSE fails to do so, i will be going big time short on this sucker.


That wonderful gap-up that i shorted today

Edited by NAV, 18 June 2007 - 07:55 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

It feels good to read it like you do. I think you nailed it when you said "unsophisticated". (Greenie will love this) I think that the Indian market is more like the US market in 1929 than any other that I've seen in my career. So much unsophisticated -- and I mean REALLY unsophisticated-- money being thrown at that market...when it breaks for real, folks are going to get hurt. I'd expect that many financial institutions are going to go away, too. Don't let it be known that you short stocks over there, OK? I want you around. Mark

[Mr Dev]

That wonderful gap-up that i shorted today

That was a nice one NAV Our RUT also achieved the same losses in the first hour.

[NAV]

I think that the Indian market is more like the US market in 1929 than any other that I've seen in my

Mark

Mark,

Can't agree with you more on that. One of my favourite books on wall street (during the roaring 20s) is "Plungers and peacocks". Indian social and financial scene has uncanny resemblence to that. Why not ? 500% market rally in 4 years. 400% rise in real estate in 4 years. 67% of bank loans in real estate. A disaster waiting to happen. Having said that, i know crazy can go crazier and hence not plunging but playing it safe.

That was a nice one NAV Our RUT also achieved the same losses in the first hour.

Thanks Mr Dev.