14 replies to this topic

[jjc]

The main reason I bought is RUT never meaningfully outperformed the decline today, so the Qs, I mean we are scared of the rates and loan disasters, but these guys are standing there. I know there is damage, but where are the big sellers?!? They don't want to close the quarter poor, imho. They want to sell more of these Blackstone types to the public probably, we know how much the public is willing to buy, they must still have a lot of cash to burn...

I shorted the ER2 at the close last night and was disappointed having chose the wrong short vehicle; I've got to believe the try to run it up before distributing.

[arbman]

I ended up selling short the last spike too, the other positions got stopped out. The trend developed very strangely today, too many stocks are breaking below the channels now...

[airedale88]

kisa, what short term cycle low were you anticipating?

[arbman]

kisa, what short term cycle low were you anticipating?

I think it would be either one of the 2.5wk or 5wk low, I also see a low toward the end of July, we have about 6-7 wks. I have mixed signals, some says higher, some says lower, the decline is too orderly in some places, so it just didn't look like another downside initiation. But the market kept declining into the close, yet still over the recent lows, I still think it is quite mixed. I think I should better step aside and protect myself from myself...

[arbman]

Airedale, my model gives about 77% chance for a higher close for next week, or the next 5 trading days. This can only be broken if the market accelerates on Monday and it has to do so from the open...