11 replies to this topic

[arbman]

ful·fill·ment /fʊlˈfɪlmənt/ [url="http://"""]Pronunciation Key[/url] - [url="http://"""]Show Spelled Pronunciation[/url][fool-fil-muhnt] [url="http://"""]Pronunciation Key[/url] - [url="http://"""]Show IPA Pronunciation[/url] –noun 1.the act or state of fulfilling: to witness the fulfillment of a dream; to achieve fulfillment of one's hopes. 2.the state or quality of being fulfilled; completion; realization: a vague plan that had no hope of fulfillment. 3.the process or business of handling and executing customer orders, as packing, shipping, or processing checks. Also, ful·fil·ment.

Today several things happened. First, my analysis on the initial sell off in early June proved correct by rallying in two waves to less than new highs and than coming below the 20 day lows of the June. Second, my analysis for a ST low relatively earlier in the week turned profitable at the middle of the week, the lows were also marginally broken as I thought. I feel fulfilled.

I think the uptrend will somewhat resume until the holidays, we should see some volatility tomorrow, this is still a weak market, so a sizeable gain like today should be retested at a minimum during a Fed day. The next 3 days are the seasonally one of the most favorable times of the year. So, I would not be selling short until July 3rd.

I expect a swift sell off on July 5th.

- kisa

[thespookyone]

I keep a close eye on your calls, love your technical approach, and you are high percentage-congrats. As for fullfilment, though, I am only satisfied with cash (of which I'm sure you made). I learned a long time ago as a trader that being right or wrong meant little to me in the end-I trade for cash. (and I got a bit of that myself today). Thanks for posting your analysis-highly valued! Spooky

[OEXCHAOS]

That's probably the way to play it, Kisa. Volume says we test the lows on the ES. M

[rkd80]

Mark, Can you please show/explain why you believe that volume indicates a retest? The way it looks like, is that the lows were testing June 8th lows and have done so successfully - so why would test them again before probing higher? rkd

[OEXCHAOS]

On the 5' and 10', we show less volume on the rally than we do at the ES 1499 stick. That's a big volume stick, too. That's a sign that we'll revisit. The flip side is that the 30' says that we don't have to. There's another target about 10 points higher, too. We could see that tomorrow and then slide down sideways on Friday. Maybe. Mark

[Rogerdodger]

Sentimentrader did a flip flop tonight on it's shorter term. The last time it did that was also on a nice big white reversal candle. The following day made a higher high but closed lower. I'm inclined to take any profits quickly until Airedale's July cycle lows.

[arbman]

I would watch the implied volatilities with respect to the price volatility in that regard, any early rise will be an indication in this jittery market...

Edited by kisacik, 27 June 2007 - 08:58 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Kisa: Congratulations. It was a big day for me too:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=72030

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 June 2007 - 10:06 PM.

[arbman]

Good job Red. ... After a possible early weakness in the morning, I am thinking new highs on all of the senior indices tomorrow...

[OEXCHAOS]

Wow, I'm not seeing the sentiment support, but seasonality is at your back. I'll tell you, though, we've got some trend line resistance just above and I think that stops this pig for now, though real weakness probably waits for next week. I think we ride along that channel. If we're down hard today, I'd be looking long again though. Mark