Edited by NAV, 11 July 2007 - 10:48 PM.
The lure of fundamental analysis....
#1
Posted 11 July 2007 - 10:40 PM
#2
Posted 11 July 2007 - 10:48 PM
Yesterday morning, i posted something about a slingshot reversal.
I saw it and I thought it had a chance because of the sentiment shift.
I bought the second early dip and placed my stop at the low.
If I was wrong, I lost a little.
If right, I'm in and ready.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#3
Posted 11 July 2007 - 10:50 PM
#4
Posted 11 July 2007 - 10:56 PM
Let's drill into that day... Remember this?
Expected SCORCH, Comes a day late...
So, tell me is a slingshot = 1/2 Scorch or what?
Edited by SemiBizz, 11 July 2007 - 10:59 PM.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#5
Posted 11 July 2007 - 10:58 PM
I agree with 99% of what you wrote.
But this is the part I disagree with:
Stock markets are inherently irrational and hence a rational methodology (such as fundamental analysis) to analyze and predict it is doomed to failure.
I think you are wrong when you suggest that the stock market is inherently irrational. The stock market while prone to some short-term overreactions and volatile emotional overshoots, for the most part does a very good job of discounting the future.
But the majority of unsuccessful traders are busy reading today's headlines and expecting the market to go down when the headlines are negative and scary. So, when the market instead goes up these traders insist that the market is wrong and "irrational". Then 3-6 months down the road we find out why the market was doing what it was doing at the time. It was not "irrational" but was instead forseeing the future headlines rather than reacting to the headlines of the day.
The market is "irrational" is the mea culpa of a bad trader who is frustrated that the market is not doing what he/she thinks it should.
#6
Posted 11 July 2007 - 10:59 PM
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#7
Posted 11 July 2007 - 11:06 PM
Ya'll are getting pretty bullish and worked up over a 50% retracement of the 40 pt move down here in the Nasdaq. I swear, you would think this was the second coming or something. That is hardly a sling shot. The sling shot occured two weeks ago on the move off 2560....(6/27/07) Today's move is 21 pts... that's not even HALF of the 45 point move on 6/27...
Let's drill into that day... Remember this?
Expected SCORCH, Comes a day late...
So, tell me is a slingshot = 1/2 Scorch or what?
Scorch is a gradual application of pressure on your nads, so that you get the most prolonged painful experience. Slinshot is that quick whack on your head, which gives you the least opportunity to experience the pain. So Slingshot = .01 Scorch, with a possibility of death
Nice post and very good points you make.
I agree with 99% of what you wrote.
But this is the part I disagree with:
Stock markets are inherently irrational and hence a rational methodology (such as fundamental analysis) to analyze and predict it is doomed to failure.
I think you are wrong when you suggest that the stock market is inherently irrational. The stock market while prone to some short-term overreactions and volatile emotional overshoots, for the most part does a very good job of discounting the future.
But the majority of unsuccessful traders are busy reading today's headlines and expecting the market to go down when the headlines are negative and scary. So, when the market instead goes up these traders insist that the market is wrong and "irrational". Then 3-6 months down the road we find out why the market was doing what it was doing at the time. It was not "irrational" but was instead forseeing the future headlines rather than reacting to the headlines of the day.
The market is "irrational" is the mea culpa of a bad trader who is frustrated that the market is not doing what he/she thinks it should.
The market is irrational, otherwise it would be efficient. Otherwise, how would you explaing the extremes ? But there's a method to it's madness, which is what we exploit with our TA.
Edited by NAV, 11 July 2007 - 11:02 PM.
#8
Posted 11 July 2007 - 11:06 PM
Scorch
Edited by SemiBizz, 11 July 2007 - 11:08 PM.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#9
Posted 12 July 2007 - 12:39 AM
#10
Posted 12 July 2007 - 02:16 AM