24 replies to this topic

[Pabst]

On breakouts sentiment is crucial. I think a swing high is in but all bets are off if there's still too many weak shorts. This is February 23rd or so. By Monday or Tuesday goodbye. For example, like some of the EW guys I have a confluence of resistance that's simply mind boggling. My trading plan is to add to shorts Monday and lean on today's highs. If I had to guess I bet ES opens Sunday 3-4 lower. Here's what I see. Identical move measurements against 2000-2002 swings in all indices. Huge sell orders that were filled on the mini-Dow contract highs. An ES market that rallied sluggishly all day to the SPX 1555.10 DT and in turn came off the level effortlessly. On the other hand we have an NDX going off on it's high tick 3pts above a critical move count. Window dressing. A fake out. I believe strongly in double tops. Hell I trade Corn. I'm also the same guy who two days ago told you the shorts were over zealous and that we were going parabolic to the upside. (I was short when I said that!!) Well we did. Now the pressure has been relieved. Not however the pressure you think. This breakout is euphoria for the bears NOT the bulls. With the hedge fund shorts toast it's finally clear sailing to the downside. All I need to know is one thing though. Are the shorts out??

[rkd80]

Hmm, if this board is any indication and speaking on personal experience I would say teh shorts are at it again. I imagine quite a few are spooked and view breakouts as dangerous places to short, plenty are now feeling more confident than ever and will pile on the short side thinking that a move like we had in the past 2 days is not sustainable. If there was such heavy short interest before, why would it abate now? Existing ones were probably wiped out yes, but more will replace the fallen.

In other words if the market did not scare the shorts in the past 3 months, why would it scare them now?

On breakouts sentiment is crucial. I think a swing high is in but all bets are off if there's still too many weak shorts. This is February 23rd or so. By Monday or Tuesday goodbye.

For example, like some of the EW guys I have a confluence of resistance that's simply mind boggling. My trading plan is to add to shorts Monday and lean on today's highs. If I had to guess I bet ES opens Sunday 3-4 lower.

Here's what I see. Identical move measurements against 2000-2002 swings in all indices. Huge sell orders that were filled on the mini-Dow contract highs. An ES market that rallied sluggishly all day to the SPX 1555.10 DT and in turn came off the level effortlessly. On the other hand we have an NDX going off on it's high tick 3pts above a critical move count. Window dressing. A fake out.

I believe strongly in double tops. Hell I trade Corn.

I'm also the same guy who two days ago told you the shorts were over zealous and that we were going parabolic to the upside. (I was short when I said that!!) Well we did. Now the pressure has been relieved. Not however the pressure you think. This breakout is euphoria for the bears NOT the bulls. With the hedge fund shorts toast it's finally clear sailing to the downside.

All I need to know is one thing though. Are the shorts out??

[spielchekr]

Just for fun, see if this helps...





200% long

http://www.marketwat...Perception/indu

Edited by spielchekr, 13 July 2007 - 10:14 PM.

[Pabst]

Would you mind discussing those results? Is that a larger than common imbalance? Is the marketwatch crowd a fade? I voted "down" in SPY and it's 60/40 up. QQQQ is 67/33 up.

Just for fun, see if this helps...





200% long

http://www.marketwat...Perception/indu

[spielchekr]

I'd say pay attention to the sample size of whatever issue you're looking at.

[Pabst]

I'd say pay attention to the sample size of whatever issue you're looking at.

Most certainly. The Dow obviously gets the most hits although I'd argue that something a bit more obscure to the public such as QQQQ might be the more legit "trader" sample. I'll update over the weekend.

Have you see many 80% plus Dow polls?

BTW: Thank you for the link!!

Edited by Pabst, 13 July 2007 - 10:34 PM.

[Bob-C]

Just for fun, see if this helps...





200% long

http://www.marketwat...Perception/indu

Hi spielchekr, thanks for the link. Here are the Marketwatch SPX poll results. with my vote included.

Cheers,

Bob-C

[spielchekr]

I'd say pay attention to the sample size of whatever issue you're looking at.

Most certainly. The Dow obviously gets the most hits although I'd argue that something a bit more obscure to the public such as QQQQ might be the more legit "trader" sample. I'll update over the weekend.

Have you see many 80% plus Dow polls?

BTW: Thank you for the link!!

Pabst:

I haven't tracked this one. I'm just bringing it to the board, like I did with TSP (scroll to bottom of my 1st post) because of seeing a large sampling pool of sentiment that is not being recognized or analyzed here. I'll bet there's someone reading this who does know more about it, though.


I suspect it's a good Joe 6 Pack poll.

Edited by spielchekr, 14 July 2007 - 08:59 AM.

[rkd80]

One would think that you would not have a collection of 800 or so experts thinking that the market is going up tomorrow. This *has* to be a contrarian indicator particularly given the simplicity of the vote and the choice of index.

[Rogerdodger]

http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm

Lowrisk is evenly split at 43/43.
Interestingly, it shows the lowest number of Neutrals in a while with 14% neutral.
Maybe strong opinion = volatility?
I would still like to know when the votes come in for these polls since a 300 point day can influence people.